Vikings vs. Seahawks Best NFL Prop Bets and Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks for NFL Week 16 (Fade Sam Darnold?)

Reed Wallach | 12 Hours Ago

Dec 16, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) passes the ball against the Chicago Bears in the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

The Seahawks need to get back in the win column to contend for a postseason berth, but will have a stiff test against the Vikings on the road. 

One thing is for sure, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is in line to continue his superstar ascent as the leading pass catcher in the Seahawks pass-happy offense. Even against an elite Vikings defense, JSN’s volume can’t be ignored as the highlight of our player prop article for this Week 16 showdown. 

Best NFL Prop Bets and Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks for Seahawks vs. Vikings

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 6.5 Receptions (+130) 
• Sam Darnold UNDER 240.5 Passing Yards (-113)
• T.J. Hockenson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+260)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 6.5 Receptions

At plus money, I’ll continue to back JSN to go over his receptions total. 

The second year pro is seventh in the NFL in receptions this season with 114 targets this season. He is explosive but also a threat to play as a possession receiver while D.K. Metcalf takes up a ton of energy from the opposing defense. 

Given that the Seahawks are considerable underdogs, the team is likely to find itself playing from behind like last week, when JSN caught 10 of 12 passes from both Geno Smith and Sam Howell, who came in for the banged up Smith. 

No matter who is in, in case Smith continues to battle a knee injury and is pulled, the passing game is beginning to revolve more and more around Smith-Njigba. 

Sam Darnold UNDER 240.5 Passing Yards

The Seahawks strength on defense is in defending the pass, fourth in the NFL in EPA/Dropback since Week 10, and I believe we see the Vikings offense focus on keeping the ball on the ground. 

Darnold has cleared this total in eight of 14 games, but with an expected victory, I believe we see this game script skew towards a lower than expected outcome on Darnold’s passing yards against a stingy defense. 

T.J. Hockenson Anytime Touchdown Scorer 

No, Hockenson doesn’t have a touchdown this season in his injury riddled 2024, but the volume continues to be there for the talented tight end. 

Hockenson is off a Monday Night Football showing against the Bears in which he caught five of seven targets for 52 yards, but the end zone continues to elude him. 

The Seahawks have interesting splits against tight ends, targeted at a top 10 rate with 107 targets to tight ends, but have only allowed three touchdowns. I believe there is looming regression for both sides and I’ll take the long shot odds on Hockenson to catch a touchdown. 

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