Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Bet Cubs/Dodgers Over, Orioles ML in Plus Money)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the MLB action on Wednesday, Sept. 11.

Sep 10, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Chicago Cubs right fielder Cody Bellinger (24) greets by center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (52) after scoring a run during the eighth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images / Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Happy Hump Day!

I’ve found a couple of strong values on the slate today at DraftKings.  Let’s root for some bats tonight!

All odds according to DraftKings.

MLB Best Bets Today for Wednesday, Sept. 11

Cubs at Dodgers over 9 (-102)

You can get almost even money for this total to go over, and with the weather on our side, I like those odds tonight.

A light breeze will be blowing out to left-center field tonight, improving  home run chances to that side of the diamond.

The Dodgers will start Bobby Miller at home tonight. Miller has an ERA of 7.74 this season with an xERA of 6.64. He has been far better when at home than when away, but this Cubs team has been one of the hottest-hitting teams in MLB since Aug. 1, averaging 5.77 runs per game- second only to the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

They have averaged an MLB-best 7.91 runs per game in that same period when playing away. Miller has allowed 4.53 walks and 2.72 home runs per nine this season, and that could get him into trouble tonight.

On the other side, the Cubs will start Jordan Wicks. Wicks is a lefty with a road ERA of 4.35 this season.   The Dodgers rank third in OPS (.773), second in SLG (.440) , and third in BA (.263) vs. left-handed pitching this season. Their 55 home runs are second only to the Baltimore Orioles (56).  

We’ll root for the bats to  be out tonight. 

Orioles ML (+120) vs. Boston Red Sox

It’s hard not to take the better team in plus money- even on the road.

Pivetta starts for the Sox tonight. He has an ERA of 3.77 this season, but his home ERA is 4.61 and since the All-Star break his ERA is 4.93.  Pivetta usually does well vs. left-handed bats which is probably much of why the Red Sox are favored tonight vs. a lefty-dominant Orioles lineup; however, Boston’s bats have been sluggish in the last two weeks of play, averaging just 3.86 runs per game, so Pivetta may not get much run support. 

In addition, the Red Sox bullpen has been a nightmare this month, with an ERA of 7.53.  

This isn’t a recent development, either. Since the All Star Break, the Boston bullpen has an ERA of 6.44, and a home ERA of 6.92.

Orioles starter, Dean Kremer, is certainly hittable, but he tossed six scoreless innings in his last outing.  

The Orioles have a 41-30 away record.

The Red Sox have a 34-40 record at home.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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