Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Diamondbacks will Mash, NRFI for Mariners/Red Sox)

Jennifer Piacenti | Jul 29, 2024

Jul 24, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte (4) celebrates with right fielder Corbin Carroll (7) after hitting a three-run home run against the Kansas City Royals in the ninth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports / Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Let's get the week started off right with some MLB winners. As always, I'm going to break down my best bets for the day in today's edition of Walk Off Wagers.

MLB Best Bets Today

All odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook

• Mariners vs. Red Sox NRFI (-140)
• Nationals vs. Diamondbacks YRFI (-120)
• Diamondbacks -1.5 (+124) vs. Nationals
• Nationals vs. Diamondbacks OVER 9 (-110)

Mariners vs. Red Sox NRFI (-140)

The Mariners have the second-lowest batting average in MLB (.218) and the highest strikeout rate (27.7%).   Today, they face off at Fenway with the Red Sox and Nick Pivetta, whose K-rate at home is 11.79 per nine.   The Mariners have scored a run in the first inning just 27% of the time, while the Red Sox have also allowed their opponents to score 27% of the time. 

The Red Sox will face Logan Gilbert of the Mariners, who has allowed only seven runs across 21 first innings pitched and has an ERA of 2.72 this season.  The Mariners have allowed their opponents to score in the first inning an MLB-lowest 17.76% of the time this season. 

Nationals vs. Diamondbacks YRFI (-120)

The Diamondbacks have been dominant vs. left-handed pitching. No team has scored more runs vs. lefties than the D-backs, and they rank in the top 6 in average, OBP and OPS vs. southpaws while striking out just 20.9% of the time.   They have also been good at scoring early this season. They have scored 34% of the time in the first inning this season- tied for the fourth-highest rate in the league.   Today, they will see Nationals pitcher Mithcell Parker, who has allowed 11 runs in two starts and just three ⅔ innings pitched since the All-Star Break. 

The D-backs will also be starting a lefty tonight in Jordan Montgomery.  Montgomery’s xERA is in the bottom 9% of the league, his K-rate is in the bottom 5%, and his pitch velo is down across the board this season, with his fastball clocking in at just 91.7 mph. The Nationals have an even lower K-rate vs. lefties (20.4%) than the Diamondbacks, and though their 4.25 runs per game ranks 18th in MLB this season, they have been Top-10 in scoring since the All-Star Break. That gives me enough confidence to take YRFI.

Diamondbacks -1.5 (+124) and Game total Over 9 (-110)

To follow up on what I said above, the D-Backs mash lefties, and they have scored an average of 6.05 runs per game this month and 4.97 per game this season—both marks are second-best in MLB. 

Arizona’s games have gone over the listed total 60% of the time this season, and this game looks like another prime spot to target the over, with the ability to push at 9. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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