Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Padres Stay Hot in Tampa Bay)

Reed Wallach | Aug 31, 2024

Aug 20, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado (13) hits a two-run home run against the Minnesota Twins during the seventh inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Major League Baseball season heads into the final month with a ton still to play for for a handful of teams.

The team to watch is the San Diego Padres, who have the best record in baseball since the second half of the season started. The Friars are positioning for an NL Pennant run and will look to continue to outperform expectations and win as an underdog against a Rays team playing for next year.

The Padres headline my best bets column with two others. Find out who I'm backing below!

Best MLB Bets for Saturday, August 31st

• Padres (+100) vs. Rays
• Red Sox (+130) vs. Tigers
• Phillies-Braves OVER 8

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Padres vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

I’m trusting the far superior team on the road at plus money. 

The Padres have been the best team in baseball since the All-Star break. The offense has rounded into form and the pitching staff has flashed enough to pace the team to a 27-11 record. 

The team is in Tampa Bay on Saturday to face a Rays team playing for next year and just tore through its bullpen that is going to lead to some depth concerns over the course of this game and the rest of the weekend. 

The team will be sending out Shane Baz, who has looked decent since returning from injury, making eight starts and posting a 3.48 ERA. However, he’s been fairly lucky, allowing a 15th percentile hard hit rate and a 32nd percentile walk rate. Further, Baz has an xERA of 4.24.

San Diego’s bats are too potent at the moment, I’ll back the road underdogs. 

Pick: Padres (+100)

Phillies vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

While two stud pitchers take the mound in lefty Max Fried for the Braves and Zack Wheeler of the Phillies, I’m going to back both offenses. 

First, the Phillies are the best team in baseball at hitting southpaws, posting a .794 OPS. All season, Philadelphia has been able to plate runs against him. Fried left in the first inning of his first start against Philadelphia after allowing three earned runs in less than an inning, and allowed a combined seven earned runs in 13 innings of work in the next two with 15 hits. 

Meanwhile, Wheeler has been stout, but not unhittable. The righty has a slightly higher xERA (3.04) to his ERA (2.75). He has allowed six hits in his last two starts, one of which was Atlanta, and the conditions should be favorable to hitters with wind blowing out to left field at nearly six miles per hour. 

I see avenues to runs being scored both early and often for a matchup that is being lined like a low scoring matchup. 

PICK: OVER 8

Mariners vs. Angeles Prediction and Pick

This game has all the making of an under. 

The Mariners have struggled against lefty pitchers all season, 28th in OPS on the year, and will face All-Star Tyler Anderson. 

While Anderson has taken a step back since the All-Star break, posting a 4.69 ERA, he has strung together fine starts against the Mariners this season, combining for nearly 12 innings with five earned runs allowed. He has shown an ability to pitch to soft contact all season, 92nd percentile and limiting damage with a 3.41 ERA. 

Meanwhile, Seattle will counter with Bryan Woo, one of the premier pitchers in the Mariners rotation. Health has limited his exposure, 16 starts in 2024, but he has an ERA of 2.05 with an elite walk rate and hard hit percentage, top 90th percentile in each. 

We have a pitcher’s duel on our hands.

PICK: UNDER 8

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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