Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Padres upset the Dodgers)

Jennifer Piacenti | 6 Hours Ago

Sep 2, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove (44) reacts after striking out Detroit Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson (not pictured) during the fourth inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

There’s a tight race in the NL West for who will claim the division crown.   Both the Padres and the Dodgers have secured a postseason berth, but the division title means a postseason first-round bye, and it is still up for grabs. 

A lot will be riding on tonight’s matchup.  The Dodgers magic number is 2 to clinch the division and finally get Shohei Ohtani to the postseason. They have home field advantage tonight, too. 

However, the Padres are looking frisky and could still spoil it for the Dodgers, claiming the division title for themselves. The Padres won the first game of this series behind Dylan Cease, while the Dodgers Squeaked out a win last night 4-3.

Tonight, the Padres start Joe Musgrove, and we will be betting on the underdogs to keep this competition alive. 

Odds in this article via DraftKings Sportsbook

Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction and Picks

Joe Musgrove is the more dependable starter tonight.  Musgrove has a sparkling 2.05 ERA since the All-Star Break. Admittedly, Musgrove imploded in his one start vs. the Dodgers this season, but that was back on March 21 in South Korea.   We aren’t going to worry too much about that.  Musgrove's 4.32 strikeout-to-walk ratio is among the best in MLB.

Walker Buehler has been a mess since returning from injury for the Dodgers.  His ERA is 5.40 since the All-Star Break, and he’s walking 3.45 batters and allowing more than two home runs per nine innings this season.  His 2.32 strikeout-to-walk ratio is among the worst in MLB. Walker has an 8.10 ERA in his single start vs. the Padres this season, which was in May. 

The Dodgers are mashing the ball right now, averaging 5.85 runs per game this month, but the Padres haven’t been sluggish, averaging 4.80. 

The Padres also have a much better bullpen. In September, Padres relievers have an ERA of just 2.87 as compared to 4.00 for Dodgers relievers. 

The players to watch in this one are Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, and of course, Shohei Ohtani.  Ohtani has fifty total bases this month while batting .442 with an MLB-best 13 extra-base hits.   His total bases prop pays plus money, so we have to take it.  In fact, I can’t see the Dodgers winning this one unless Ohtani tallies at least two, and the oddsmakers have the Dodgers as favorites. 

Ohtani is on an absolute tear right now, and you can never discount him putting the Dodgers on his back to earn the win. But, I’ll be backing the road dogs with superior pitching to keep the late-season drama alive tonight.  

Padres ML (+100) 
Ohtani over 1.5 bases (+105)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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