Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Phillies Undervalued with Cristopher Sanchez on Mound)

Reed Wallach | Jul 4, 2024

Jun 12, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cristopher Sanchez (61) pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports / Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball is the focus of Independence Day. 

Every team is in action on Thursday for July 4th, and we are targeting several high level matchups, including the Phillies road trip to Wrigley Field, where the team looks to build on its best record in the big leagues. 

Philadelphia starter Cristopher Sanchez has been impressive all season and isn’t getting the respect he deserves in the betting market. Find out how I’m attacking the Phillies game as well as two others on Thursday’s card. 

Best MLB Bets for Thursday, July 4th 

• Astros vs. Blue Jays (-105)
• Phillies (-130) vs. Cubs
• Padres (+115) vs. Rangers 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook 

Astros vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Framber Valdez is on the no-bet list for me for the time being. The left hander ranks in the second percentile in hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity with a diminished pitch arsenal. 

Chris Bassitt has steadied his performance this season, pitching to a 3.24 ERA while striking out near his career average of batters. I think he can keep a handle on the Astros lineup while the Blue Jays navigate Valdez en route to a win.

Pick: Blue Jays (-105)

Phillies vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Christopher Sanchez has been pitching like an All-Star this season, and I’ll trust the left hander to show out against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. 

Sanchez does a great job of limiting walks (74th percentile) and is a groundball pitcher (98th percentile), which sets up nicely against a Cubs lineup that is bottom third in the bigs in terms of OPS against southpaws. 

With the wind blowing out to left field, it will be hard for the Cubs to take advantage of the hitter friendly conditions. 

Pick: Phillies (-130)

Padres vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

I’ll fade the Rangers with Max Scherezer set to make his third start of the season. 

The Padres will start Michael King to counter the future Hall of Famer, who has been consistent over a longer sample size, featuring a 3.61 ERA and an elite hard-hit percentage (88th percentile). 

Scherzer hasn’t pitched more than five-and-a-third innings, making it difficult for me to trust him to hold up, even if he pitches at a high level, and offset the Rangers bottom third bullpen. 

Pick: Padres (+115)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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