Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Target Pablo Lopez, Twins on Saturday)

Reed Wallach | Jun 29, 2024

Jun 12, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) throws to the Colorado Rockies in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports / Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

A loaded Saturday of baseball is ahead of us, and we got you covered with all the action all day long.

Below, you'll find our favorite bets for Saturday's card that features a stud pitcher hiding in plain sight. Pablo Lopez had a slow start to 2023, but is starting to finally find his form as we hit the halfway point for the surging Twins. Can Lopez keep it up in a measuring stick matchup against the Mariners? I'm banking on it.

Below, you'll find our favorite bets for Saturday's MLB card.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Bets Today, June 29th

• Mets ML (+110) vs. Astros
• Royals ML (-110) vs. Guardians
• Twins ML (-120) vs. Mariners

Astros vs. Mets Astros Prediction and Pick

The Mets should be able to stay hot against the Astros, who are top five in the big leagues against left handed pitching. 

Southpaw Framber Valdez has struggled to stay healthy this season and pitch to his Cy Young expectation. Valdez has a fourth percentile hard-hit percentage and has lost his ability to find his strikeout prowess, right at the big league average. 

Ride the streaking Mets.

PICK: Mets +110

Guardians vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

The Royals, one of the best home teams in baseball, have arguably its best pitcher on the mound in Cole Ragans. Ragans is the superior pitcher with a nasty fastball that strikes out nearly 30% of the batters he has faced this season, and will have the Royals’ bats playing at home to back him up. 

Kansas City is the second best hitting team at home this season, a big reason why the club is 29-15 on the year at Kauffman Stadium. It also helps that the team gets to face Tanner Bibee, who has had a weak fastball and a high flyball rate that can cause issues at Kauffan stadium.

I’ll take the home team in a matchup that is lined like a coin flip. 

Twins vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Twins’ starter Pablo Lopez continues to erase a slow start to the season, and his underlying metrics make him a worthwhile bet against a Mariners team that is only hitting .210 in the month of June, the lowest in the big leagues. 

Lopez has been a victim of poor variance, his 3.27 xERA is far lower than his 5.11 ERA with an elite strikeout rate of 27%. 

I’m counting on the Twins’ starter to roll through the overrated Seattle lineup. 

Meanwhile, I'm happy to fade Bryce Miller, the Mariners starter on Saturday night. Miller has a 3.90 ERA that is supported by a 4.34 xERA. I'm confident the Twins, who are third in OPS this month, can knock around the regression bound Miller.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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