Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Yankees Stay Hot, but Total Stays Under)

Jennifer Piacenti | Oct 17, 2024

Oct 15, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees catcher Austin Wells (28) and pitcher Luke Weaver (30) celebrate after defeating the Cleveland Guardians in game two of the ALCS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The Yankees and the Guardians play Game three of the ALCS tonight in Cleveland.

We have a 12-3 record for our best bets since the start of the Divisional Series.    Let’s see if we can keep it rolling tonight. 

All odds according to DraftKings. 

Best MLB Bets for Thursday, October 17th

• New York Yankees ML (-118)
• Under 7 (+100)

I’m betting on the Yankees to stay on top tonight.

Clarke Schmidt’s ERA on the road this season is just 1.39. In the postseason,  he allowed two runs to the Royals across 4 ⅔, a game the Yankees won 3-2. 

Matthew Boyd has a home ERA of 2.25 for the Guardians across 20 regular-season innings pitched.  In the postseason, he has allowed no earned runs across two starts and 6 ⅔ innings pitched. 

Both bullpens are dependable, but Yankees relievers have been lights-out, with just a 0.77 ERA in the postseason. 

The Guardians have been sluggish in the postseason, averaging just 3.13 runs per game, though that number has been better at home (4.67).  The Yankees averaged just three runs per game in their two postseason away games, and they have averaged 4.17 runs per game  overall.

You can see how bookmakers like seven for the run total and why we are getting a little value for the under. 

Both managers will be quick with the hook tonight if their starters get into any trouble.    The Guardians will be on the ropes if they don’t win tonight, and the Yankees will be just one game away from a World Series appearance. Relievers from both teams should be fully available after yesterday’s day off. 

I’ll bet on the Yankees to win tonight. Though they have struggled vs. left-handed pitching this season, in their one start vs. Boyd,  they tagged him for three earned runs.  The Yankees have scored 11 runs across their last two, and the bats seem to be waking up.  I’ll bet they can put up enough offense to win this one in a low-scoring affair.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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