Warriors vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NBA Summer League Semifinal

Can the Miami Heat win another game and advance to the summer league final?

Kel'el Ware poses for photos with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected in the first round by the Miami Heat. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Both the Golden State Warriors and Miami Heat have been competing this summer since the California Classic, and those few extra games appear to have helped them in Las Vegas.

The two squads are facing off at 4 p.m. EST in a semifinal matchup with the winner advancing to play the Los Angeles Clippers/Memphis Grizzlies winner in Monday’s championship game. 

Golden State has played great this summer, but rotation players Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis have been shut down, which makes things a little trickier entering this semifinal matchup. 

Yes, Golden State has won without them, but can it beat an undefeated Miami team? 

The Heat – led by rookie center Kel’el Ware – blew out the Toronto Raptors to advance to the semifinals today. Ware, Cole Swider, Alondes Williams and Josh Christopher round out a roster with a lot of NBA experience on it. 

How does that impact the betting odds for Sunday’s contest?

Well, let’s break down those odds, which players to watch and my prediction for this summer league semifinal. 

Warriors vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Warriors +4.5 (-110)
• Heat -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Warriors: +154
• Heat: -185

Total

• 179.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Warriors vs. Heat How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, July 21
• Time: 4:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Thomas & Mack Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Warriors record: 4-0
• Heat record: 4-0

Warriors vs. Heat Key Players to Watch

Golden State Warriors

Pat Spencer: One of the best stories in the NBA last season, Spencer ended up making the Warriors after being an elite college lacrosse player before turning back to basketball. He’s played well in summer league, including in Golden State’s win over OKC, putting up 17 points on 8-of-10 shooting.

Miami Heat

Kel’el Ware: Miami’s first-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, Ware has been a double-double machine so far in the summer. He’s gotten a ton of run since the California Classic, and Ware dominated the Toronto Raptors with 17 points, 10 rebounds, two assists, four steals and a block in just 23 minutes. 

Note: Lineups are very fluid in summer league, and teams will sit out players to get a look at other prospects. These key players to watch – and the upcoming prediction – are based on the teams playing their expected lineups. 

Warriors vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

Golden State has played two games without Podziemski and Jackson-Davis, winning by 11 against Cleveland and seven against OKC, but Miami is yet another step up in class. 

The Heat have dominated in Vegas, winning three games by 13 or more points, including two by more than 25 points. They have plenty of players who have experience at the NBA level, and I’d expect them to suit up in this game.

With the Warriors down their best young players, I think it will finally catch up to them on Sunday.

Golden State has yet to score 100 points yet in Vegas, while Miami has put up 119, 102, 92 and 109 in four games. That offense is going to be too much for the Warriors to match. 

Pick: Heat -4.5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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