Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for NBA Cup Quarterfinals

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Golden State Warriors-Houston Rockets matchup in the NBA Cup Quarterfinals.

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry is a solid prop target tonight. / David Gonzales-Imagn Images

The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets both got off to fast starts in the 2024-25 season, and it helped them advance to the quarterfinals of the NBA Cup on Wednesday night.

Golden State is just 4-6 in its last 10 games, but it did pick up a big win over Minnesota on Sunday behind a 30-point game from Steph Curry.

Houston has played elite defense this season, ranking in the top five of the NBA in defensive rating with a loaded young core.

These teams have played twice this season with Golden State winning both matchups. What’s more interesting about those games is that Golden State didn’t have Curry in EITHER matchup.

Can the Rockets finally get over the hump against Golden State?

The winner of this matchup will play on Saturday in the semifinals. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction tonight.

Warriors vs. Rockets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Warriors +2.5 (-112)
• Rockets -2.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Warriors: +120
• Rockets: -142

Total

• 222 (Over -108/Under -112)

Warriors vs. Rockets How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Dec. 11
• Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Toyota Center
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Warriors record: 14-9
• Rockets record: 16-8

Warriors vs. Rockets Injury Reports

Warriors Injury Report

• De’Anthony Melton – out
• Moses Moody – out
• Andrew Wiggins – questionable

Rockets Injury Report

• Steven Adams – questionable
• Alperen Sengun – questionable
• Jae’Sean Tate – questionable
• Cam Whitmore – questionable

Warriors vs. Rockets Best NBA Prop Bets

Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

• Steph Curry OVER 10.5 Rebounds and Assists (-110)

Every time that oddsmakers set this prop at just 10.5 for Curry, he’s a must bet.

Yes, the Warriors have not played their star guard against Houston, but I don’t think that changes how he fares against them on Wednesday night. So far this season, Curry is averaging 5.3 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game (11.9 rebounds and assists), clearing 10.5 in 13 of his 18 games and 11 of his last 12.

Over that 12-game stretch, Curry is averaging 5.7 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game. 

Houston Rockets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Jabari Smith Jr. OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-120)

The Warriors held Jabari Smith Jr. to just 1-for-4 shooting from 3 in their last meeting, but he also hit 5-of-13 shots from deep in the first meeting this season between these teams.

In the 2024-25 season, Smith Jr. is shooting 35.1 percent from 3, averaging 1.7 made 3s on 4.8 attempts per game. 

He’s cleared 1.5 made 3s in six of his last seven games and 11 of 24 games overall. He’s a solid bet in this matchup against a team that he hit his season-high in 3s against already. 

Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction and Pick

It’s hard to beat a team three times in a row, but the Warriors have the ultimate secret weapon in this game. 

Curry is going to play. 

Golden State is 10-8 in games that Steph has played this season, and they’re an impressive 4-2 against the spread overall as road dogs.

Houston has an elite defense (No. 2 in the NBA), but the Warriors are No. 4 in the NBA in defensive rating and held Houston to just 93 points in the last meeting between these teams.

The Rockets have gone 7-3 against the spread as home favorites, but I can’t look past Golden State having Curry back against a team that it has matched up well with. 

Take the points on Wednesday night. 

Pick: Warriors +2.5 (-112)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.