Western Kentucky vs. James Madison Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Boca Raton Bowl

Reed Wallach | Dec 16, 2024

Sep 21, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; James Madison Dukes cornerback Terrence Spence (3) reacts with cornerback Justin Eaglin (30) after intercepting the ball in the second quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Western Kentucky came up short in its bid for a Conference USA title against Jacksonville State, but will look to finish on a high note with a bowl game win against James Madison.

Last season, the college football world was introduced to Caden Veltkamp, who entered the Hilltoppers bowl game last season to lead a historic comeback. Can he show up again in the Boca Raton Bowl against James Madison, who will be starting its backup quarterback Billy Atkins due to an injury to starter Alonza Barnett?

Here's our Boca Raton Bowl betting preview.

Western Kentucky vs. James Madison Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

Western Kentucky: +6.5 (-104)
James Madison: -6.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Western Kentucky: +188
James Madison: -230

Total: 53.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Western Kentucky vs. James Madison How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, December 18
Game Time: 5:30 PM EST
Venue: FAU Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Western Kentucky Record: 8-5
James Madison Record: 8-4

Western Kentucky vs. James Madison Key Players to Watch

Western Kentucky

Caden Veltkamp: The Western Kentucky offense sputtered down the stretch, but over the balance of the season the Hilltoppers air-raid passing game was among the best in Conference USA. Veltkamp, who stepped in for T.J. Finley early in the year, passed 2,806 yards with 30 total touchdowns and 10 interceptions while completing two-thirds of his passes.

James Madison

Billy Atkins: Atkins is slated to start this game in place of Alonza Barnett, who got hurt at the end of the season for the Dukes. The junior has little experience in four seasons with James Madison but will look to engineer a sound JMU ground game against a shaky Hilltoppers rush defense that is outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush.

#JMU HC Bob Chesney said Billy Atkins will start vs Western Kentucky in the Boca Raton Bowl.

“Billy’s been right there and ready to go. He’s taken a ton of reps, he’s really excited for this opportunity.”
— Preston Comer (@prestonscomer) December 9, 2024

Western Kentucky vs. James Madison Prediction and Pick

The drop-off from Barnett to Atkins is questionable given the lack of experience the backup has, but this is a run-first James Madison offense in a favorable matchup against Western Kentucky’s defense. With that in mind, there is a path to the Dukes being in decent shape to mitigate the loss of Barnett, who totaled 3,000 yards on the season.

Atkins will be flanked by George Pettaway in the backfield, who averaged nearly six yards per carry, to keep this offense on track. The Dukes averaged nearly five yards per carry this season behind an elite offensive line in terms of line yards, top 30 in the country, so the team should be able to move the ball well on the ground despite the change at quarterback.

The Dukes have been up and down all season, scoring 70 points against North Carolina before sputtering in Sun Belt play and losing two straight to lose the season. However, Western Kentucky is also in shaky form, losing three of its last four and failing to score more than 21 points.

The JMU defense has been vulnerable to big plays all season, outside the top 90 in both explosive rush and pass rate, but the defensive line has been fantastic all season. The Dukes are top 10 in sacks on the year and should have the edge on WKU’s offensive line.

While I’m wary of laying the points with a backup quarterback in a bowl game, I can only look JMU’s in terms of the spread given the state of Western Kentucky’s offense down the stretch of the season. For now, I’ll take the under given I project 51 points in this game.

PICK: UNDER 53.5