Why You Should Bet Buccaneers to Win NFC South Over Falcons

Iain MacMillan | Nov 18, 2024

Dec 10, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws a pass against the Atlanta Falcons in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Week 11 of the NFL season is in the books and with us getting a more clear picture of which teams are contenders and which are pretenders, it's tough to find value in the betting market at this point of the season.

With that being said, there's one bet I've found I absolutely love and it's a wager on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to storm back and win the NFC South.

NFC South Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Falcons -410
• Buccaneers +400
• Saints +3000
• Panthers +11000

Falcons are still the -410 favorites to win the division, an implied probability of 80.39%, but I think there's real value on the Buccaneers at +400.

Bet the Bucs to Win the NFC South

The Buccaneers had their BYE in Week 11 and will come into Week 12 fresh. They're through the tough part of the schedule and now get to enjoy a run against much weaker opponents. Five of their final six games are against the likes of the Panthers (twice), Giants, Raiders, Chargers, Cowboys, and Saints.

It can be assumed the Bucs will be favorites in six of their seven games, with the only game they'll likely be underdogs being a road game against the Chargers. Based on how they've played this season, despite being 4-6, a 6-1 record down the stretch certainly isn't out of the question.

A 6-1 record in the final stretch of games will bring them to 10-7 on the year.

The means the magic number for the Falcons is 10 wins, due to holding the tiebreaker on the Falcons. They enter their Week 12 BYE at 6-5 meaning they'll have to go 4-2 in their final six games to lock up the division. Unlike the Bucs, they have some tough opponents in their final stretch of games. They'll likely be favored against the Raiders, Giants, and Panthers but will be underdogs to the Chargers, Vikings, and Commanders.

In order to go 4-2, they'll need to beat the three teams they should beat and then steal a game against the Chargers, Vikings, or Commanders. If they go just 3-3 in these games, the Bucs will need to finish on a 5-2 run against inferior opponents to get the job done. If the Falcons implode even further and go just 2-4 in their final six, the Bucs can dance to the finish line, needing to go 4-3 against some of the weakest teams in the league.

When considering all those factors, including how each team has looked in recent weeks, the Buccaneers making a come back to win the division seems like a very real possibility. I would say there's a strong than 20% chance of it happening, making +400 odds a bet that holds value.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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