Wings vs. Mercury WNBA Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, July 10 (Trust Phoenix at Home)

Can the Mercury stay hot at home?

Phoenix Mercury center Brittney Griner. / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Phoenix Mercury are looking to extend their winning streak to three games on Wednesday afternoon when they host the last-place Dallas Wings.

Dallas is in the midst of a lost season – mainly due to injuries – and it’s led to some inferior play, especially on the defensive end of the floor. 

Phoenix, on the other hand, has been rolling since Brittney Griner returned from a foot injury, and it is now one game over .500 on the season.

The Mercury love playing at home – as evidenced by their 7-4 record there – but can they cover the spread as a sizable favorite on Wednesday? 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch, and my best bet for this Western Conference matchup. 

Wings vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Wings +7.5 (-110)
• Mercury -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Wings: +275
• Mercury: -345

Total

• 173 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Wings vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday. July 10
• Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Footprint Center
• How to Watch (TV): WNBA League Pass
• Wings record: 5-17
• Mercury record: 11-10

Wings vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Dallas Wings Injury Report

• Lou Lopez Senechal – day-to-day
• Satou Sabally – out
• Jaelyn Brown – out
• Maddy Siegrist – out

Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

• Rebecca Allen – probable
• Charisma Osborne – out
• Diana Taurasi – out

Wings vs. Mercury Key Players to Watch

Dallas Wings

Arike Ogunbowale: The engine for the Dallas offense, Ogunbowale has been asked to carry a massive load with Satou Sabally out this season. The three-time All-Star has responded by averaging 23.1 points per game, and she had 26 in an eight-point loss the last time these teams faced off. 

Phoenix Mercury

Brittney Griner: This could be a massive game for the Mercury center, as the Wings rank dead last in the W in opponent points in the paint per game (40.4). Griner comes into this matchup averaging 19.4 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. Plus, she scored 24 points in the win over Dallas back on July 3. 

Wings vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

In today’s WNBA Best Bets column, I parlayed the Mercury to win with the Indiana Fever to win, but for this game alone, I’d simply bet on Phoenix to cover – for several reasons. 

The Mercury are on a two-game winning streak to get back over .500 on the season, and now they get a look at a Dallas team that is just 2-11 straight up on the road and 5-17 overall in the 2024 campaign. 

The Wings have failed to cover in five straight games, while Phoenix is an impressive 7-4 against the spread at Footprint Center in 2024. 

Not only that, but Dallas’ advanced numbers don’t look good – partially because the team has been banged up all season. 

The Wings rank dead last in net rating and defensive rating this season while Phoenix is now up to seventh in net rating after a slow start to the season when Griner was out. 

I’m not going to overthink this bet given Dallas’ struggles in 2024. Give me the better team to run away with this one at home. 

Pick: Mercury -7.5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.