Wisconsin vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Feb. 15

Reed Wallach | Feb 14, 2025

Jan 29, 2025; College Park, Maryland, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard John Tonje (9) handles the ball during the first half against the Maryland Terrapins at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images / Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images

Purdue couldn’t close out what would’ve been a massive Big Ten win on the road against Michigan on Tuesday night, but return to the friendly confines of Mackey Arena to face Wisconsin on Saturday afternoon. 

The Boilermakers host Wisconsin in a battle that will help determine the top of the Big Ten pecking order. This is the first meeting between two longtime rivals, and the Boilermakers have been installed as the considerable home favorite. Can Purdue avoid a losing streak and get back on track at home? 

Here’s our betting preview for this conference showdown. 

Wisconsin vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Wisconsin: +5.5 (-110)
• Purdue: -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Wisconsin: +188
• Purdue: -230

Total: 147.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Wisconsin vs. Purdue How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, February 15
• Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
• Venue: Mackey Arena
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Wisconsin Record: 19-5
• Purdue Record: 19-6

Wisconsin vs. Purdue Key Players to Watch

Wisconsin

John Tonje: The transfer wing has been among the best in the country with his new team, pacing Wisconsin to one of the best offenses in the nation. He had it all working last Saturday, scoring 22 points with six rebounds and four assists against Iowa but will face a far more difficult defense in Purdue. 

Purdue

Braden Smith: Even in a loss, Smith continued to show out for the Boilermakers, scoring 24 points to go with six rebounds and five assists. He has been shooting the ball at an incredibly high level while leading the nation in assist rate at nearly 45%. He is also one of the best on-ball defenders in the Big Ten, ranking second in the conference in steal percentage. 

Wisconsin vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

This matchup sets up nicely for Purdue, who should be able to attack Wisconsin’s defense on the interior. 

The Boilermakers lead the Big Ten in conference effective field goal percentage but are most dangerous on the interior where the team is shooting 58% on two-point shots. The likes of Smith and Trey Kaufman-Ren are elite finishers around the rim and at the foul line which can test the Badgers' disciplined defense. 

However, it’s on the other side of the ball where I believe the team can dictate this matchup. The Boilermakers lead the Big Ten in turnover rate as the team has been incredibly tough to get on the interior against. The Badgers offense has become incredibly 3-point reliant, as they are taking more than half of their shots in conference play from beyond the arc. Against Purdue, who shuts off the interior, the Badgers will be hoisting from distance often in this one. 

I lean towards Purdue on the side, but my preferred bet is the over in this one. 

Wisconsin’s offense has held up on the road nicely this season, ranking 12th in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency this season. While Purdue’s defense has been elite all season, the team is 221st in effective field goal percentage allowed on defense, offsetting some of its woes defending shooters with a high turnover rate. 

With both offenses built to handle the other, I’ll side with the over.

PICK: OVER 147.5 (-110, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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