Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Aces-Liberty and Lynx-Sun Game 4)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the two Game 4 matchups in the WNBA semifinals on Sunday.

Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier (24) celebrates with teammates. / Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

Will we see a Game 5 – or two – in the WNBA Semifinals? 

The two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces kept their home playoff winning streak alive, setting a WNBA record with a 12th consecutive win on Friday night.

Now, they’re favored to force a winner-take-all Game 5 against the New York Liberty on Sunday.

In the other semifinal matchup, the Connecticut Sun (down 2-1 to the Minnesota Lynx) are also favored (by only 1.5 points) to beat the Minnesota Lynx and force a Game 5 in Minnesota. 

The Lynx dropped Game 1 at home, but they bounced back with two straight wins, including a dominant showing in Game 3 where they shut down the Sun offense through three quarters.

After a rough night betting the Game 3 action, I’m back with a few plays for Sunday’s Game 4 matchups. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 79-67 (+5.83 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

• Las Vegas Aces -3.5 (-110) vs. New York Liberty – 0.5 unit
• Minnesota Lynx Moneyline (+100) vs. Connecticut Sun – 0.5 unit

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Las Vegas Aces -3.5 (-110) vs. New York Liberty – 0.5 unit

Let’s talk about what the Aces can do in this series. 

After falling down 0-2 in the series, the Aces are attempting to become the first team in WNBA history to win a series after losing the first two games. Teams in best-of-five scenarios that have been down 0-2 are 0-18 all time. 

In the Game 3 betting preview, I mentioned that I couldn’t quit the Aces – especially at home – despite losing the first two games of this series. 

Well, I most certainly can’t quit them now.

Las Vegas finally got a solid game from all three of its star guards, as Gray, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum combined for 54 points, 13 assists and nine 3-pointers. It’s going to be tough to repeat that performance, but something close to that is going to make Las Vegas tough to beat.

I’m not sold on the Aces making history and winning this series – yet – but I do think they can take Game 4. 

The Liberty could not find a way to get Ionescu going, and even though they’re 16-4 straight up on the road, I don’t see the two-time defending champs going quietly. 

Bet on a 13th straight home win for the Aces in the playoffs. 

Minnesota Lynx Moneyline (+100) vs. Connecticut Sun – 0.5 unit

Will we see a team clinch a spot in the Finals on Sunday? 

These teams are the two best defensive squads in the league, but it’s been the Minnesota offense that has started to turn this series around.

Napheesa Collier’s big Game 3 (26 points, 11 rebounds, three assists, two steals), some impressive shot making from guard Courtney Williams and timely 3-balls from Kayla McBride and Bridget Carleton have helped the Lynx rebound from a Game 1 loss. 

They’ve now led each game heading into the fourth quarter, and the Sun simply haven’t had enough offense to compete the last two games.

Ty Harris’ ankle injury – and now lack of playing time – is huge, as it gives the Lynx one less ball-handler and player to create offense off the dribble. 

Now, the Sun need Marina Mabrey (1-for-11 from 3-point range in Game 3) to bounce back to give Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner some support. 

Ultimately, I think the Lynx close out the series on Sunday. They have been money as underdogs this season – 12-3 against the spread – and they’ve severely outplayed Connecticut over the last eight quarters.

Connecticut has struggled against the spread at home, and I think the lack of offensive options has finally caught up to Stephanie White’s squad.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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