Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for A'ja Wilson, Dream-Wings on Friday)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the WNBA for the action on Friday, July 5.

Las Vegas Aces forward A'ja Wilson. / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Looking to enter the holiday weekend on a high note with some WNBA winners?

My season-long record in the WNBA has moved to 35-27 overall, and we’re fresh off of a sweep on Wednesday in the Dallas Wings-Phoenix Mercury matchup. 

Now, I’m back with yet another play on a Wings game – this time against the Atlnata Dream – as well as my favorite player prop for Friday’s three-game slate. 

Let’s break it down!

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 35-27 (+4.59 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Atlanta Dream +4 (-105) vs. Dallas Wings
• A’ja Wilson OVER 25.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Atlanta Dream +4 (-105) vs. Dallas Wings

Dallas has won just one game since late May, so I have a really hard time laying the points with the Wings here, no matter how banged up Atlanta is. 

Even without Rhyne Howard and Jordin Canada, the Dream still have two star-caliber players in Allisha Gray and Tina Charles, as well as Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (9.7 points per game) that they can rely on to pick up the slack. 

Dallas is a dreadful 2-6 against the spread at home this season while the Dream are 5-3 ATS on the road. 

With this recent rough patch (basically the entire month of June), Dallas has dropped to dead last in the league in net rating. I simply can’t get behind the Wings as favorites with both teams at less than 100 percent. 

A’ja Wilson OVER 25.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Las Vegas Aces star A’ja Wilson is the favorite to win the WNBA MVP this season, and a big reason why has been her elite scoring numbers. 

Wilson is averaging 26.5 points per game on 52.5 percent from the field and 36.4 percent from beyond the arc, putting up 13 games with 26 or more points this season. 

That’s what we’re asking Wilson to do against the Los Angeles Sparks on Friday night, a team that she scored 31 points against on 10-of-17 shooting in a four-point loss earlier this season.

Los Angeles’ interior defense has taken a major blow since then, as star rookie shot blocker Cameron Brink is out for the season with a torn ACL. 

That should open things up for Wilson in the painted area against a weak defense (Los Angeles is 10th in the league in defensive rating). 

Even though she scored just 18 points in a blowout win over the Washington Mystics – playing just 26:13 – Wilson is a must bet at this number on Friday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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