Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for A'ja Wilson, Sabrina Ionescu, Fever-Sun)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for each Game 1 matchup in the WNBA Playoffs on Sunday.

Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) celebrates. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The WNBA Playoffs are upon us!

After an exciting regular season that saw multiple teams win 30 or more games (the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx), we finally get to see which team has what it takes to win it all.

The Las Vegas Aces and league MVP A’ja Wilson begin their quest for a third consecutive title on Sunday night against the Seattle Storm, and that’s just one of the four playoff games in action on Sunday.

Starting at 1 p.m. EST, we will see who has the edge in the opening game of these three-game series, where anything can happen in such a short time. 

Here’s a quick look at the matchups on Sunday:

• No. 8 Atlanta Dream at No. 1 New York Liberty
• No. 7 Phoenix Mercury at No. 2 Minnesota Lynx
• No. 6 Indiana Fever at No. 3 Connecticut Sun
• No. 5 Seattle Storm at No. 4 Las Vegas Aces

This postseason, I plan on betting on every matchup in some capacity, whether it is a side, total, moneyline or prop. 

For anyone who followed along in the regular season, you know that we made a pretty solid profit in the W (75-54, +10.60 units).

Let’s keep the momentum going with the stakes getting higher this postseason!

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 73-54 (+9.69 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Sabrina Ionescu OVER 6.5 Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit
• Indiana Fever +5 (-108) vs. Connecticut Sun – 0.5 unit
• Minnesota Lynx -9.5 (-112) vs. Phoenix Mercury – 0.5 unit
• A’ja Wilson OVER 25.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Sabrina Ionescu OVER 6.5 Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit

I absolutely love this prop for Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu, who only played 22 minutes in the regular season finale against Atlanta and still picked up seven dimes.

This season, Ionescu is averaging 6.2 assists per game, but she’s really taken things to another level recently, averaging 7.2 assists per game over her last nine contests, clearing this total in six of those games.

Ionescu has also struggled shooting the ball over that stretch (32.1 percent from the field), so it’s possible she’ll lean on her teammates a little more in Game 1.

Atlanta allows over 20 assists per game to opponents this season, and Ionescu has seven, four, 11 and five dimes against them in four meetings in 2024. At even money, she’s certainly worth a shot at this number. 

Indiana Fever +5 (-108) vs. Connecticut Sun – 0.5 unit

I went back and forth between a prop and a side in this matchup, but ultimately I think the Indiana Fever can cover on Sunday.

These teams only played on time after early June, and the Fever won that game by four points at home.

Indiana has been a totally different team since the Olympic break, ranking No. 1 in the league in offensive rating and cracking the top five in net rating over its last 15 games.

Meanwhile, the Sun have struggled when it comes to covering the spread at home. CT is just 7-3 ATS at Mohegan Sun Arena and a pedestrian 15-16 ATS as a favorite in 2024. 

These teams are the ultimate contrast of style, but I do think the Fever can speed the Sun up a little – if their offense gets going early. 

I was debating a play on the total in this game, but all of the games between these teams have been right around 163 points. I really think Indiana deserves some love for the strong finish it had in the regular season, and it should be able to hang within two possessions on Sunday. 

Minnesota Lynx -9.5 (-112) vs. Phoenix Mercury – 0.5 unit

Minnesota rolled during the regular season against the Mercury, winning at home by 24 and 13 points – which would easily cover this number on Sunday.

I don’t want to count out veterans like Copper, Taurasi and Brittney Griner in a playoff setting, but the Lynx were far and away a better team during the regular season. Just look at how these teams stacked up in some key statistics in 2024: 

Net Rating 

• Lynx: +8.0 (third)
• Mercury: -4.1 (ninth)

Defensive Rating

• Lynx: 94.8 (second)
• Mercury: 105.4 (ninth)

Offensive Rating

• Lynx: 102.8 (fourth)
• Mercury: 101.3 (eighth)

Effective Field Goal Percentage

• Lynx: 51.8% (fourth)
• Mercury: 50.3% (sixth)

The Mercury have also struggled as underdogs (8-13 against the spread) so far this season. I’ll lay the points with the Lynx at home. 

A’ja Wilson OVER 25.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

I mean, are we serious with this line (25.5) for Wilson?

The 2024 league MVP is averaging 26.9 points per game this season, scoring 21, 24, 27 and 29 against the Storm in four games.

If Ezi Magbegor ends up sitting in this game, that’s a major blow to the Storm’s frontcourt defense, and it should help Wilson score at a high level. 

In 38 games during the regular season, Wilson scored 26 or more points 25 times, meaning she hit the OVER on this line over 65 percent of the time.

Seattle finished the regular season allowing the third most points in the paint per game, and it was just seventh in defensive rating over its final 15 games.

Wilson is going to roll at home in Game 1. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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