Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Arike Ogunbowale, Mercury-Wings)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the WNBA for the action on Wednesday, July 3.

Dallas Wings guard Arike Ogunbowale. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Looking to bet on the WNBA on Wednesday night?

We have a standalone game to dive into between the Phoenix Mercury and Dallas Wings, but there are a lot of injuries that could impact this game. 

Here’s a quick look at both of the injury reports: 

Mercury Injury Report

• Brittney Griner – day-to-day
• Rebecca Allen – questionable
• Charisma Osborne – out

Wings Injury Report

• Maddy Siegrist – out
• Jaelyn Brown – out
• Satou Sabally – out

There’s several key players out for Dallas, which has led to it winning just one of its last 10 games and falling to 4-15 on the season – the worst record in the league. 

Meanwhile, Phoenix has lost back-to-back games at home, and now it has to go on the road with a chance to get back to .500 as a road favorite in this game. 

I have a side and a player prop that I’m betting for this matchup.

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 33-27 (+3.68 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Phoenix Mercury -5 (-110) vs. Dallas Wings – 0.5 unit
• Arike Ogunbowale OVER 22.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

Phoenix Mercury -5 (-110) vs. Dallas Wings – 0.5 unit

Even though Phoenix may be facing Dallas at less than full strength, I still think it’s in a prime spot to win this game and get back to .500 on the season. 

The Mercury are one of the better teams against the spread so far this season, and Dallas has struggled against the spread at home (2-5 ATS and straight up) in 2024. 

Ultimately, Dallas’ defense is going to be the issue that allows the Mercury to win this game. Dallas is dead last in net rating and No. 11 in defensive rating, which mitigates Phoenix’s issues on the defensive end – No. 9 in defensive rating – so far this season. 

Earlier this season, Phoenix won in Dallas by seven points. Since the start of June, all of Dallas’ losses have come by more than five points, and it only has one win. I simply can’t back this struggling team at such a short number on Wednesday.  

Arike Ogunbowale OVER 22.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

Dallas guard Arike Ogunbowale is one of the best scorers in the WNBA, averaging 23.7 points per game but shooting just 36.7 percent from the field. 

Overall, Ogunbowale has scored over 22.5 points in 11 of her 18 games this season, including four of her last five. She has dominated the Mercury this season, scoring 40 points in a win in their first meeting and 25 points in the second meeting between these teams. 

Phoenix has struggled on defense – ninth in defensive rating – this season, and I expect the Wings to lean on Ogunbowale in a big way against a team she has fared well against. So far this season, Ogunbowale has averaged a career-high 21.2 shot attempts per game. That volume should be enough to push her over this prop on Wednesday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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