Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Caitlin Clark, Lynx-Mercury)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the two Game 2 matchups in the WNBA Playoffs on Wednesday.

Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark. / Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Wednesday features two more Game 2s – and two more teams facing elimination in the WNBA Playoffs.

Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever kick off the night against the Connecticut Sun after they were trounced by 24 points in Game 1 on Sunday. Clark is looking to bounce back, but she could be a… fade candidate… tonight. 

Meanwhile, in the Western Conference, Napheesa Collier (38 points in Game 1) and the Minnesota Lynx are looking to sweep the Phoenix Mercury, who couldn’t get the job done despite scoring 95 points in Game 1. 

With the Lynx favored by 8.5 points, can we trust them to cover?

Here’s a breakdown of my two plays for Wednesday’s Game 2s.

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 76-60 (+8.08 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Minnesota Lynx -8.5 (-110) vs. Phoenix Mercury – 0.5 unit
• Caitlin Clark UNDER 19.5 Points (+100)

Minnesota Lynx -8.5 (-110) vs. Phoenix Mercury – 0.5 unit

The Lynx failed to cover in Game 1 – something that was disappointing after a 32-19 first quarter, but they still ended up beating the Mercury by seven points. 

With this spread moving down a point to 8.5 in Game 2, I’m going back to the Lynx for a few reasons.

First off, Minnesota dominated during the regular season against the Mercury, winning at home by 24 and 13 points. It also outranked the Mercury in every key category from net rating to offensive rating to defensive rating to effective field goal percentage. 

Phoenix hung around in Game 1 thanks to 33 points and 10 assists from Natasha Cloud and a 5-for-10 shooting night from 3 from Diana Taurasi.

Are those two things repeatable in Game 2? I don’t think so.

Phoenix shot 14-for-27 from 3 (51.9 percent) in Game 1 and still lost by seven. There’s a reason the Mercury were 8-13 ATS as underdogs in the regular season, and I don’t see them keeping this one close after losing Game 1 despite bringing their A+ offense.  

Caitlin Clark UNDER 19.5 Points (+100)

I don’t want to do it, but it’s time to fade Caitlin Clark against the WNBA’s best defense.

Connecticut has bottled up the rookie sensation all season long, and it continued in Game 1 on Sunday. 

Clark ended up shooting just 4-for-17 from the field and 2-for-13 from beyond the arc to finish with 17 points, and that’s been a trend we’ve seen against the Sun in 2024. Across four regular season games against CT, Clark ended up averaging just 16.5 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game while turning the ball over 25 times during the regular season.

DiJonai Carrington is one of the best perimeter defenders in the WNBA, and she’s going to hound Clark in this game from the jump. Plus, the Sun love to slow the game down, ranking dead last in the WNBA in pace – the opposite of the Fever’s fast-paced offense. 

With the Sun (No. 1 in the league in defensive rating) holding the Fever to just 69 points in Game 1, I’m not sold on Clark scoring 20-plus in Game 2.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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