Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Marina Mabrey, Chelsea Gray, Sun-Lynx)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the two Game 2 matchups in the WNBA semifinals on Tuesday.

Connecticut Sun guard Marina Mabrey. / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The WNBA Semifinals did not disappoint on Sunday, as the New York Liberty won a hard-fought game against the Las Vegas Aces and the Connecticut Sun pulled off an upset on the road against the Minnesota Lynx.

Even though the Aces did not cover the spread for our best bets on Sunday, the Sun-Lynx UNDER came through for a 1-1 day. 

It was an impressive game all around from the Sun, who fought back from a deficit to begin the fourth quarter to win as 4.5-point underdogs. They’re the one side that I’m targeting again in Game 2. 

As for my other Game 2 plays, I’m sticking with a pair of props featuring two of the best guards in the game. 

Let’s dive in for yet another day of WNBA action. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 78-62 (+7.97 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Marina Mabrey OVER 2.5 Made 3s (-172) – 0.5 unit
• Chelsea Gray OVER 4.5 Assists (-138) – 0.5 unit
• Connecticut Sun +5 (-108) vs. Minnesota Lynx – 0.5 unit

Marina Mabrey OVER 2.5 Made 3s (-172) – 0.5 unit

Let’s start with a prop for Connecticut guard Marina Mabrey, who has taken at least 10 shots from beyond the arc in each of her three playoff games. 

Mabrey has gone 5-for-12, 3-for-10 and 6-for-11 from 3 – hitting some huge shots in Game 1 against the Lynx on her way to 20 points. 

The volume for Mabrey is the key here, as she’s and even bigger role the last few games with Ty Harris (ankle) injured. 

During the regular season with the Sun, Mabrey averaged 2.6 made 3-pointers on 6.2 attempts per game. Now that she’s taking 11 per game in the playoffs, she’s a great bet to hit at least three on Tuesday night. 

Chelsea Gray OVER 4.5 Assists (-138) – 0.5 unit

A big reason for the Aces’ loss on Sunday?

Chelsea Gray did not have it.

The star point guard shot just 2-for-7 from the field and dished out just one assist in the loss, but I’m expecting a bounce-back game for Gray as a passer on Tuesday.

So far in the playoffs, Gray has seven, nine and then one assist in three games. She averaged 4.9 assists per game in the regular season despite playing limited minutes at times due to her starting the season late because of an injury. 

Gray had five or more dimes in six of her final eight regular season games, and I expect her to get back to her usual form in a must-win Game 2.  

Connecticut Sun +5 (-108) vs. Minnesota Lynx – 0.5 unit

Are we sure that the Sun should be five-point underdogs in Game 2?

I do think that Minnesota can get back in the series on Tuesday night after a cold fourth quarter (just eight points) doomed it in Game 1, but I’m not sold on it being by a large margin.

These two teams are No. 1 and 2 in the league in defensive rating and two of the slower-paced teams (why we took the UNDER in Game 1) at No. 12 (CT) and No. 10 (MIN). 

So, naturally, it’s hard to build a major lead on either side. 

Connecticut has been solid against the spread on the road this season (12-9), and I was really impressed with how it weathered the storm after falling behind late in the third quarter.

If Ty Harris returns in this series, the Sun may be the favorite to advance. I like them to at least keep Game 2 close on Tuesday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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