Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Satou Sabally, Jonquel Jones in Wings-Liberty)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the WNBA for the Dallas Wings-New York Liberty matchup on Thursday night.

New York Liberty center Jonquel Jones. / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

All eyes will be in Brooklyn on Thursday night in the WNBA, as the New York Liberty look to extend their winning streak to eight straight games in a standalone matchup with the Dallas Wings. 

There is some uncertainty in this game with Sabrina Ionescu listed as day-to-day after missing Tuesday’s matchup with a neck injury. 

The Liberty still won that game by 20 points, covering the spread in the seventh straight game on this winning streak. Can they do it again on Thursday?

With Ionescu up in the air, I’ve put together three half-unit plays – including two prop bets – for Thursday’s matchup. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 50-38 (+7.11 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

• Jonquel Jones OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-130) – 0.5 unit
• Satou Sabally OVER 31.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-106) – 0.5 unit
• New York Liberty -13.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Wings – 0.5 unit

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jonquel Jones OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-130) – 0.5 unit

Liberty center Jonquel Jones has been awesome out of the Olympic break, grabbing 17 and 12 rebounds in her last two games.

I am worried about a potential blowout – like the win over Los Angeles out of the break – limiting Jones’ minutes, but she still is averaging 9.3 rebounds per game this season.

Dallas plays at a fast pace (No. 3 in the league), which should allow for more chances for Jones to crash the glass. She had 12 boards in Tuesday’s win, and the former MVP has picked up 10 or more boards in 13 games this season, including five of her last eight. 

Satou Sabally OVER 31.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-106) – 0.5 unit

Satou Sabally is back. 

The All-Star forward has been balling since returning after the Olympic break, easily surpassing this total in both games. 

Sabally is averaging 22.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game while shooting 45.2 percent from the field and 57.1 percent from 3. She had 24 points, five rebounds, four assists and four steals in the loss to the Liberty on Tuesday.

I’ll take another shot on Sabally going over this number on Thursday in what should be an offensive game, especially if she stays around 15 shot attempts. There is going to be some regression from beyond the arc, but after putting up 15 rebounds and assists in her debut, Sabally had just nine in Game 2.

I expect that to even out as well, helping push her past 31.5 PRA on Thursday. 

New York Liberty -13.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Wings – 0.5 unit

While the Liberty have not covered the spread at a high rate at home this season (5-10 ATS), they’ve been on an insane ATS streak dating back to July. 

If Ionescu returns to action on Thursday, I’ll like the Liberty at this number even more, as Dallas has shown that even with Sabally it simply isn't good enough to compete with the best teams in the W.

The Wings rank dead last in the WNBA in defensive rating and net rating this season, while the Liberty are No. 1 in offensive rating, No. 3 in defensive rating and No. 1 in net rating. This New York team is humming – even without forward Betnijah Laney-Hamilton – and is the favorite to win the title in my eyes. 

After watching the Wings lose badly in both of their games out of the break, I’ll trust New York at home. The Wings are just 5-10 ATS on the road and 8-19 ATS overall this season. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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