WNBA Championship Odds: Liberty, Aces Lead Way, Caitlin Clark’s Fever Fifth Ahead of 2024 Playoffs

Breaking down the odds to win the WNBA Finals ahead of the start of the playoffs on Sunday.

New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart (30) and guard Sabrina Ionescu. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The WNBA playoffs are set!

The Atlanta Dream locked up the eighth and final playoff spot on the final day of the 2024 regular season, locking things in ahead of Sunday’s Game 1s. 

The No. 1-seeded New York Liberty lost just eight games in the 2024 regular season, and they are the favorite to win the title at +145 odds (an implied probability of 40.82 percent). The Las Vegas Aces follow them at +250 (implied probability of 28.57 percent), who are looking to win a third straight title behind A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Youn, Kelsey Plum, and company.

Here’s a look at the latest odds, and a few discrepancies in them based on the standings. 

WNBA Championship Odds for Every Playoff Team

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• New York Liberty: +145
• Las Vegas Aces: +250
• Minnesota Lynx: +350
• Connecticut Sun: +700
• Indiana Fever: +2800
• Seattle Storm: +3000
• Phoenix Mercury: +8000
• Atlanta Dream: +20000

Las Vegas and Indiana are the two teams that are out of place in the odds based on their seeding.

Even though the two-time defending champs are the No. 4 seed, they still have the second-best odds to win it all, above the No. 2-seeded Minnesota Lynx and No. 3-seeded Connecticut Sun.

Indiana, the No. 6 seed has the fifth-best odds – ahead of the No. 5-seeded Seattle Storm – to win the Finals in 2024. 

WNBA Playoff Bracket for 2024

The bracket is officially set for the 2024 playoffs, and it’s possible that the two top teams in the odds – New York and Las Vegas – could meet in the second round if they win their first-round matchups. 

All seeds and playoff spots are locked 🔒

Take a look at the official bracket for the 2024 #WNBAPlayoffs presented by @Google ⬇️

First Round begins Sunday September 22nd at 1pm/ET on ESPN#WelcometotheW pic.twitter.com/QWsC3NF7qj

— WNBA (@WNBA) September 20, 2024

• No. 1 New York Liberty vs. No. 8 Atlanta Dream
• No. 4 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 5 Seattle Storm

• No. 2 Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 7 Phoenix Mercury
• No. 3 Connecticut Sun vs. No. 6 Indiana Fever

• Winner of No. 1 vs. No. 8 will play Winner of No. 4 vs. No. 5
• Winner of No. 2 vs. No. 7 will play Winner of No. 3 vs. No. 6

• Two Winners Will Advance to WNBA Finals

New York Liberty Are Best Bet to Win WNBA Title

The Liberty are far and away the best team in the WNBA this season, even if the Aces have the best player (Wilson).

New York is No. 1 in the league in offensive rating, No. 3 in the league in defensive rating, and No. 1 in net rating. The net rating is the biggest thing to look at, as the Liberty (+11.7) have a 3.6-point lead on the second-best team in that statistic (the Connecticut Sun at +3.6). 

With Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones leading the way, the Liberty have experience in the Finals from last season. Not only that, but New York dominated the Aces in the regular season, winning by four, 12, and eight in their three meetings. 

The path to the Finals isn’t easy for the Liberty – they’ll have to go through Seattle or Las Vegas to get there – but there is no doubt that the Dream are the easiest first-round matchup. So, bettors who take New York should see it among the final four teams left in the league. 

Can Indiana Fever Make Miracle Run to WNBA Finals?

Everyone is going to be wondering if Caitlin Clark and the 20-20 Indiana Fever can truly make a run to the WNBA Finals.

While it is unlikely, the path to the Fever isn’t terrible.

They won’t have to face New York or Las Vegas until the Finals (if they get there), and they went 1-2 against both the Sun and Lynx during the regular season.

After not making the playoffs since 2016, Indiana turned things around in the second half of this season, going 19-12 over its final 31 games after a 1-8 start. The Fever had the best offensive rating in the WNBA over the last 15 games of the season and ranked fifth in the league in net rating during that stretch.

Clark has also really come into her own since the Olympic break, putting up nearly 24 points per game over a 14-game stretch. 

That being said, the Fever have to be a better defensive team if they want to get past Connecticut (No. 1 in defensive rating) and Minnesota (No. 2 in defensive rating).

This may not be the year for the Fever to win it all, but the draw isn’t as bad as it could have been.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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