WNBA MVP Odds: Napheesa Collier Surging, Caitlin Clark Falling, Behind A'ja Wilson

Breaking down the latest WNBA MVP odds with Napheesa Collier making a push for the No. 2 spot in the market.

WNBA Commissioner Cathy Englebert gives the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship MVP award to Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier. / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The WNBA MVP race has been A’ja Wilson’s to lose for quite some time, but the contenders behind her seem to be changing every week.

Just last week, Indiana Fever rookie guard Caitlin Clark surged into the No. 2 spot in the odds, leapfrogging several other players in the process.

With Indiana still holding the No. 7 seed in the standings, Clark has an argument to win MVP, but not as much as Wilson, who has carried a banged-up Las Vegas Aces team to the No. 5 seed, just half a game back of the No. 4 spot at this point in the season.

Clark’s odds movement was certainly notable, especially since she’s a rookie. But, it didn’t last long.

With the Minnesota Lynx on a six-game winning streak to improve to 22-8 on the season, forward Napheesa Collier is now the No. 2 choice to win the WNBA MVP award, just one week after she was +25000 at DraftKings Sportsbook to win MVP. 

WNBA MVP Odds for 2024 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• A’ja Wilson: -4000
• Napheesa Collier: +4500
• Caitlin Clark: +6000
• Breanna Stewart: +10000
• Jewell Loyd: +20000
• Sabrina Ionescu: +25000

Based on implied probability, Wilson has a 97.56 percent chance to win this award, and she’s been the heavy favorite all season long.

Still, it’s interesting to see a ton of movement in the market around her. Just one week ago, here’s what the WNBA MVP odds looked like: 

• A’ja Wilson: -3500
• Caitlin Clark: +7500
• Sabrina Ionescu: +7500
• Alyssa Thomas: +7500
• Jewell Loyd: +15000
• Breanna Stewart: +15000
• Jonquel Jones: +20000
• Napheesa Collier: +25000
• Nneka Ogwumike: +25000
• Kelsey Plum: +25000

So, over the last week, Wilson’s odds have improved while Clark (+7500 to +6000) and Collier (+25000 to +4500) have seen massive jumps in their favor. 

Sabrina Ionescu, who was originally tied with Clark for the No. 2 choice, missed a few games last week, and she’s now dropped to +25000 despite playing on the first-place New York Liberty. 

Napheesa Collier Jumps to No. 2 Choice to Win WNBA MVP

Collier missed a few games before the Olympic break due to a foot injury, but the Lynx have been a contender this season thanks to her impressive play.

The four-time All-Star is averaging 21.1 points, 10.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.1 steals and 1.2 blocks per game. Collier led the Lynx to a Commissioner’s Cup win this season, defeating the No. 1-seed New York Liberty in that matchup. 

Minnesota has beaten Wilson and the Aces twice and Clark and the Fever once over this six-game winning streak. In four games since the Olympic break, Collier is averaging 25.6 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game while shooting 66.2 percent from the field and 42.1 percent from 3. 

I think there’s a real argument for Collier to win the MVP award – especially if the Lynx end up ahead of Las Vegas in the standings. While Wilson has better numbers in some categories, it’s hard to deny Collier’s impact. 

She’s posted a career-high 5.7 win shares this season (Wilson is at 8.2), and the Lynx are plus 13.9 points per 100 possessions when she’s on the floor. When Collier is on the bench, the Lynx are minus-1.4 points per 100 possessions. 

A’ja Wilson Still Heavily Favored to Win WNBA MVP

Despite Collier’s amazing season, there’s a reason why Wilson continues to move further and further ahead in the MVP market.

Not only has she accumulated 2.5 more win shares than Collier, but Wilson is averaging 26.6 points, 11.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.0 steals and 2.7 blocks per game. There’s a chance that the two-time MVP will win both the MVP and Defensive Player of the Year awards this season. 

While I do think Clark and Collier should both be given more consideration in this market, they’re worth nothing more than a small longshot wager with oddsmakers signaling that Wilson has all but locked up the award.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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