Women's Olympic Soccer Odds and Prediction: USWNT Favored to Win Gold Medal

Iain MacMillan | Jul 24, 2024

Jul 16, 2024; Washington, D.C., USA; The United States starting eleven pose for a picture prior to their friendly send-off match against Costa Rica at Audi Field. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The men's soccer tournament at the Olympics leaves a lot to be desired, but the women's soccer tournament will feature the best female players on the planet and has become a must-watch event.

The United States women's team won the gold medal in four of the five Olympic Games between 1996 and 2012 since women's soccer was included in the games, but have now fallen short twice in a row. Germany won gold in 2016 and Canada won gold in the 2020 games.

USWNT is back as the betting favorite to recapture gold, but the odds are a lot closer than they have been in years past with women's soccer developing at a high level across the globe.

Let's take a look at the opening odds to win this year's gold medal in Paris.

Women's Soccer Olympic Odds

The odds listed below are via FanDuel Sportsbook

• USA +175
• Spain +200
• France +500
• Germany +1400
• Japan +1700
• Brazil +1700
• Australia +2100
• Canada +2600
• Colombia +3400
• Zambia +9500
• Nigeria +9500
• New Zealand +11000

USWNT Set as Betting Favorites

The time has passed where the USWNT was shoo in to win every international women's soccer competition. Canada is the defending gold medal champions and Spain won last year's Women's World Cup.

With that being said, the USWNT is still a force to be reckoned with. They lost in the first round of the knockout stage in the USWNT to Sweden, but they led the tournament in expected goal differential at +1.82 per game. A lack of ability to convert scoring chances to goals hurt them in the end.

Spain, as the odds indicate, is the clear biggest competition to the USWNT. Not only did they win last year's World Cup, but they were statistically fantastic throughout the tournament as well. They were just barely behind the USWNT in expected goal differential at +1.37 per match, but were much more efficient offensively, finding ways to score at will.

The way the groups are set up, Spain and USWNT wouldn't meet until the Gold Medal match if they both win their respective groups. Both teams are the clear best team in their respective sides of the bracket. There's good reason why they're the two betting favorites to win Gold.

In my opinion, there's much more betting value on Spain at 2-1 odds, but USWNT is going to make a valiant run at recapturing the gold medal.

Pick: Spain (+200) defeats USWNT in Gold Medal Match

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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