Xavier vs. Illinois Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 20, 2025

Mar 7, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kasparas Jakucionis (32) looks to pass during the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

After winning a thrilling First Four game against Texas, No. 11 seed Xavier is into the Midwest Region first round to take on No. 6 seed Illinois. 

The Fighting Illini have had an up-and-down year in the Big Ten, but are immensely talented with the likes of star freshman Kaspras Jakucionis leading an up-tempo offense that is bruising on the glass. 

The Musketeers had a February heater that turned into March success with a bid to the NCAA Tournament and a First Four win, can the team keep it rolling in the first round against the Fighting Illini? 

Here’s our betting preview.

Xavier vs. Illinois Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Xavier: +3.5 (-115)
• Illinois: -3.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Xavier: +138
• Illinois: -154

Total: 159.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Xavier vs. Illinois How to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 21st
• Game Time: 9:45 PM EST
• Venue: Fiserv Forum
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Xavier Record: 21-11
• Illinois Record: 21-12

Xavier vs. Illinois Key Players to Watch

Xavier

Zach Freemantle: The big man battled foul trouble in the first half against Texas, but played a big role down the stretch in the team’s second-half rally, finishing the game with 15 points and two rebounds. Against a formidable frontcourt, the 6’9’ big man will be leaned on to battle on the boards and potentially attack the Fighting Illini big men from the perimeter. 

Illinois

Kasparas Jakucionis: The future lottery pick has hit a bit of a freshman wall, but he will have an edge on a slow-footed Xavier perimeter defense that has struggled to stay in front of ball handlers all season. Illinois’ offense loves to play fast, and it stems from the 6’6” Jakucinois, who is averaging 15 points, five rebounds, and nearly five assists on the year. 

Xavier vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

Illinois has been a feast-or-famine team all season as the offense has been a horrific shooting outfit, ranking 316th in three-point percentage despite shooting it at the 31st-highest rate. 

However, this matchup may force Illinois’ ball handlers to force the issue more on the inside, as Xavier limits three-point shooting and funnels teams inside, where the defense is pedestrian defending at the rim and containing isolation scorers, which the Fighting Illini are far stronger at. 

In the First Four, Texas put together a big scoring effort with 50% shooting on two-point shots and 47% shooting on threes while winning the rebound battle by six, something Illinois can lean into as the seventh-best rebounding team in the country against Xavier, which checks in 139th. 

I believe Illinois can dictate this game, and if the team has any uptick in three-point shooting, it can win with relative ease. While Xavier has been in good form of late, the win against Texas was the team’s second Quad 1 win of the season. 

I’ll take the Fighting Illini at a discount. 

PICK: Illinois -3.5 (-105, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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