Xavier vs. Texas Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Four

Reed Wallach | Mar 18, 2025

Texas guard Tre Johnson (20) keeps the ball away from Vanderbilt guard Chris Manon (30) during a NCAA college basketball first round game at the men’s Southeastern Conference Tournament Wednesday, March 12, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn. / Mark Zaleski / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Xavier and Texas will close out the First Four on Wednesday night, attempting to advance to the First Round of the Midwest Region with the right to face No. 6 seed Illinois. 

The Musketeers used a late-season surge to score an at-large bid while Texas competed in the best season in college basketball this season in the SEC as it looks to use its rugged schedule as preparation for the NCAA Tournament. 

In a game with a tight point spread, who has the edge and is primed to advance? 

We have you covered with our betting preview!

Xavier vs. Texas Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Xavier: -2.5 (-115)
• Texas: +2.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Xavier: -137
• American: +114

Total: 149.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Xavier vs. Texas How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, March 19th
• Game Time: 9:10 PM EST
• Venue: UD Arena
• How to Watch (TV): truTV
• Xavier Record: 21-11
• Texas Record: 22-12

Xavier vs. Texas Key Players to Watch

Xavier

Ryan Conwell: The Xavier guard has been on a tear to close the season, scoring 20 or more in his last five games, including 38 against Marquette in the team’s Big East Tournament loss last week. A dangerous shooter, he’s hitting 40% of his three-point shots, but has also emerged as more of an on-ball threat this season with the ball in his hands more. 

Texas

Tre Johnson: The Longhorns wing is a future lottery pick in the NBA Draft, and has shown he has a 30-point upside as he matches up against a Xavier defense that can be had along the perimeter. The Longhorns prefer to run isolation sets, and a ton of pressure will fall on Johnson to show out in his NCAA Tournament debut. During the year, Johnson has been averaging nearly 20 points per game. 

Xavier vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

This matchup is nicely suited for the Longhorns, who can gain advantages in isolation sets against Xavier’s slower-footed perimeter defense. 

Texas may not run the most efficient offense, but the team is flush with players that can create its own shot, including the flammable Johnson and transfer forward Arthur Kaluma. Xavier has had trouble containing wing players along the perimeter all season long, and also have poor rim defense metrics, ranking 97th in near-proximity field goal percentage allowed, per Haslametrics.

On the other side of the floor, Xavier may struggle running its half-court offense against a Texas team that is elite at limiting transition opportunities for the opponent. The team’s frontcourt can also give the likes of Zach Fremantle trouble in the post while also containing Conwell along the perimeter. 

Texas defense will put pressure on Conwell to create for himself as the team is top 100 in limiting assists on the year, which is impactful against a Xavier offense that is top five in the country in assist rate. 

While Xavier is rightfully favored, this matchup sets up nicely for Texas to cover the small-point spread. 

PICK: Texas +2.5 (-110, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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