Yankees vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for ALCS Game 3 (3-0 Lead Incoming?)

Can the Yankees improve their road playoff record to 3-0 this season?

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees opened up a 2-0 series lead on the Cleveland Guardians as things shift to Cleveland for Games 3, 4 and 5 to close out this week.

New York is a perfect 2-0 on the road so far this postseason, and it’ll look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead as a slight favorite on Thursday night with Clarke Schmidt on the mound. 

Schmidt, who missed a large chunk of the 2024 season with an injury, returned for the final month of the regular season and posted a 3.65 ERA across five starts. He then started Game 3 against the Kansas City Royals and allowed two runs over 4.2 innings of work. 

He’ll face Guardians lefty Matthew Boyd, who allowed just five hits and no runs across 6.2 innings (two starts) in the ALDS.

With Cleveland being forced to use its bullpen for long stretches in both Games 1 and 2, can it rebound at home in Game 3?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch and my prediction for Thursday’s matchup. 

Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Yankees -1.5 (+150)
• Guardians +1.5 (-180)

Moneyline

• Yankees: -115
• Guardians: -105

Total

• 7 (Over -122/Under +102)

Yankees vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

• New York: Clarke Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA)
• Cleveland: TBA – Likely Matthew Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA)

Yankees vs. Guardians How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Oct. 17
• Time: 5:08 p.m. EST
• Venue: Progressive Field
• How to Watch (TV): TBS
• Series: Yankees lead 2-0

Yankees vs. Guardians Key Players to Watch

New York Yankees

Aaron Judge: Has Aaron Judge finally figured it out at the plate in the playoffs? The soon-to-be AL MVP hit a two-run homer on Tuesday night – icing the game for New York. He is now 2-for-7 in this series with three runs scored, four runs batted in and three walks. While those aren’t the numbers Judge put up in the regular season, they’re pretty close. He’ll look to stay hot in Game 3. 

Cleveland Guardians

Matthew Boyd: Cleveland’s chances in this series likely rest on the arm of Boyd after Tanner Bibee lasted less than two innings in Game 2, forcing the Guardians to use a ton of their bullpen for the second straight game. Boyd pitched in Game 2 and Game 5 of the ALDS, throwing 6.2 innings of scoreless ball, allowing just five total hits. 

Yankees vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

To say that the Yankees have gotten lucky in this series is an understatement. 

New York scored multiple times in Game 1 on wild pitches, and it lucked out in the first inning of Game 2 with the Guardians dropping an infield fly that led to a run. 

Still, New York’s pitching staff has been elite, allowing just five total runs in this series. Even though the Guardians had the best bullpen ERA in the league during the regular season, they have taken a small step back in the playoffs (3.11) while New York’s bullpen is thriving (0.77 ERA).

The Yankees are hoping that Schmidt can give them five innings on Thursday, and he was serviceable against Kansas City in the ALDS. Boyd is a tough matchup for a Yankees team that hasn’t hit lefties very well in 2024, but he also hasn’t worked deep into games.

If Cleveland has to lean on its bullpen for five or more innings again, that could be trouble. 

The Guardians have also struggled to score all postseason, posting a .226 batting average and .621 OPS – the lowest OPS of any time still left in the postseason. 

I’ll back the Yankees in a pick’em scenario in Game 3. 

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-115)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.