Yankees vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Monday, July 29 (How to Bet Total)

Will starting pitching reign supreme on Monday night?

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler. / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Two of the best teams in baseball face off on Monday night on MLB Network, as the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies take on the New York Yankees.

New York is one game out of the lead in the AL East, but it has the best odds of any AL team to win the World Series after trading for Miami Marlins star Jazz Chisholm Jr. 

New York’s offense – and play overall – has sputtered over the last two months, but it still has 62 wins and could be turning a corner after taking a weekend series against the Boston Red Sox. 

Can the Yankees keep that going against Zack Wheeler and the Phillies, who have also been wheeling and dealing ahead of the trade deadline? Philly added outfielder Austin Hays and closer Carlos Estévez in two separate deals last week. 

Here’s a look at the odds, probable pitchers and my prediction for this marquee matchup. 

Yankees vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Yankees +1.5 (-162)
• Phillies -1.5 (+136)

Moneyline

• Yankees: +124
• Phillies: -148

Total

• 8.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Yankees vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

• New York: Luis Gil (10-5, 3.10 ERA)
• Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler (10-4, 2.55 ERA)

Yankees vs. Phillies How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 29
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• How to Watch (TV): Prime Video/MLB Network
• Yankees record: 62-45
• Phillies record: 65-40

Yankees vs. Phillies Key Players to Watch

New York Yankees

Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Chisholm made his Yankees debut against the Boston Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball, going 1-for-5 with a run scored and a stolen base. The Yankees are hoping that the flashy outfielder can spark their offense down the stretch of the 2024 season. 

Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Wheeler: An NL Cy Young candidate, Wheeler has allowed just three runs across his three outings this month. The Phillies are 12-8 straight up in Wheeler’s 20 outings, and he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in 16 of his 20 starts. 

Yankees vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams have potent offense when they are clicking, but this pitching matchup could calm the bats on both sides. 

Wheeler has been lights out for most of 2024, allowing two or fewer earned runs in 16 of 20 outings, leading to a sub-3.00 ERA. 

Gil has also been great for the Yankees, leading them to a 13-7 record in his 20 starts while posting a 3.10 ERA. After a rough stretch in June, Gil has allowed just one earned run in each of his last three outings. 

So, I’m eyeing a play on the total – specifically the UNDER – on Monday night. 

Gil’s last three starts have all finished with totals under this number, and overall his starts have gone UNDER 8.5 total runs 50 percent of the time. As for Wheeler, 12 of his 20 starts have finished with eight or fewer runs, including two of his three outings this month. 

Even with the Yankees offense coming back to life this past weekend, I’m going to trust these starters to set the tone tonight. 

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (+100)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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