Yankees vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Tuesday, July 30

Reed Wallach | Jul 30, 2024

Jul 11, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws a pitch during the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies continue a measuring stick series against one another with two stalwarts of the rotation set to do battle.

Gerrit Cole missed the start of the season, and he hasn't looked like the Cy Young pitcher he was last season, yet continues to be priced as a high end pitcher. Will he find his form against one of the best lineups in the big leagues with a veteran arm in Aaron Nola on the mound?

Here's our best bet for Tuesday's matchup.

New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds, Spread and Total

Run Line

• Yankees: -1.5 (+150)
• Phillies: +1.5 (-182)

Moneyline

• Yankees: -104
• Phillies: -112

Total: 9.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 30
• Game Time: 6:40 PM EST
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• How to Watch (TV): YES Network, NBC Sports Philadelphia
• Yankees Record: 63-45
• Phillies Record: 65-41

New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies Probable Pitchers

New York Yankees: Gerrit Cole (3-2, 5.40 ERA)

Philadelphia Phillies: Aaron Nola (11-4, 3.44 ERA)

New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies Key Players to Watch

New York Yankees 

Aaron Judge: The runaway AL MVP, there is an argument that Judge is outperforming his historic 2022 season. He’s hitting .315 with a near-.700 slugging percentage (.696) while crushing 39 homers. Since the All-Star break? He’s hitting .400. 

Philadelphia Phillies

Bryce Harper: Harper is in a bit of a slump since the All-Star break, hitting only .143 since the midsummer classic. However, the power is still in play for Harper 

New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Pick

Gerrit Cole of the Yankees continues to be overrated in the betting market, so I’ll side with the far more complete team in the Phillies. 

Cole has a 5.40 ERA, and while his xERA is lower at 4.65, he isn’t getting much movement on his pitches (26th in run value), and is allowing a ton of flyball contact, 17th percentile in groundball rate, which can lead to issues in the hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has been fantastic at limiting hard contact all season, ranking in the 76th percentile in hard-hit percentage. That’s big against a hard hitting Yankees team that is reliant on the middle of its lineup to do much of the heavy lifting. 

Nola can work around the Yankees sluggers like Aaron Judge and Juan Soto and get the Phillies back on track after a blowout defeat against the Yankees. 

PICK: Phillies (-112)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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