Yankees vs. Royals Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for ALDS Game 3 (Bet on KC?)

Who will win a critical Game 3?

Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Royals evened their series with the New York Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS, scoring four runs in the fourth inning in a 4-2 win.

New York’s offense couldn’t get anything going against Cole Ragans and the Royals bullpen, and now it needs to steal a game in Kansas City to force a Game 5 at Yankee Stadium.

New York is a light favorite in this matchup, but oddsmakers aren’t giving either team a major edge. Kansas City was nine games over .500 at home in the regular season, and it’ll look to carry that success into its first home playoff game since 2015.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, probable pitchers and my best bet for Game 3. 

Yankees vs. Royals Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Yankees -1.5 (+145)
• Royals +1.5 (-175)

Moneyline

• Yankees: -115
• Royals: -105

Total

• 8 (Over -108/Under -112)

Yankees vs. Royals Probable Pitchers

• New York: Clarke Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA)
• Kansas City: Seth Lugo (16-9, 3.00 ERA)

Yankees vs. Royals How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Oct. 9
• Time: 7:08 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): TBS
• Series: Tied 1-1

Yankees vs. Royals Key Players to Watch

New York Yankees

Clarke Schmidt: After missing a large chunk of the season with a lat injury, Schmidt pitched well down the stretch of the 2024 season, posting a 3.65 ERA in five outings. He may not pitch deep into this game, so the Yankees could end up leaning on their bullpen again a lot. 

Kansas City Royals

Bobby Witt Jr.: After picking up three hits and driving in a pair of runs against the Baltimore Orioles in the AL Wild Card, Witt Jr. has struggled against the Yankees in the ALDS. The star shortstop is 0-for-10 with four strikeouts. Can he turn things around at home in Game 3?

Yankees vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

The Yankees issue in this series has been their starting pitching.

Both Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon did not have their best stuff, and while the bullpen was lights out for most of Game 2, the Yankees offense did not score enough to get the job done.

Kansas City won Lugo’s start in Game 2 against the Baltimore Orioles, moving it to 18-16 in his starts this season. Lugo had a strong first two months before coming back to earth, but he blanked the Yankees over seven innings in September, striking out 10.

I don’t mind Schmidt on the Yankees side, but the bullpen is likely going to pitch four or more innings again – a lot to ask after Games 1 and 2. 

I’ll side with the Royals, who have been elite at home, going 45-36 straight up, in Game 3. 

Pick: Royals Moneyline (-105)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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