Zozo Championship Preview and Picks: Resurgent Rickie Ready to Contend in Japan

A preview and picks to win for the Zozo Championship from Matt Vincenzi, where several big names are set to tee off.

Fowler is one of the headliners (and sneaky good bets) this week at the Zozo Championship. / Jack Gruber-Imagn Images

The PGA Tour will head to Japan this week for the fourth time in five years to play the Zozo Championship at Narashino Country Club. In 2020, the event was temporarily moved to Sherwood Country Club due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Narashino Country Club is a par-70 measuring 7,079 yards and features Bentgrass greens. The course has a unique design with five par-3s and three par-5s.

The Zozo Championship is a no-cut event that features 78 golfers. The field is very strong this week, with a handful of PGA Tour stars making the long trip to Japan. Those golfers include Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Sahith Theegala, Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas, Max Homa, Min Woo Lee and Si Woo Kim. 

Past Winners at Narashino Country Club

• 2023: Collin Morikawa (-14)
• 2022: Keegan Bradley (-15)
• 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-15)
• 2019: Tiger Woods (-19)

Let's take a look at several key metrics for Narashino Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes-gained approach

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club isn't a very long course. It is a positional track where finding the right spots to land the golf ball will create birdie opportunities. Accurate players have thrived at Narashino in the past. 

Total strokes-gained approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Kurt Kitayama (+1.26)
2. Doug Ghim (+1.09)
3. Gary Woodland (+1.06)
4. Xander Schauffele (+1.00) 
5. Mac Meissner (+0.88)

Good-drive percentage

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a tree-lined golf course that is pretty tight off the tee. In 2019, we saw Tiger Woods win the event by keeping the ball in the fairway and intelligently plotting along.

Over the past few years, hitting fairways was extremely difficult as pressure ramped up over the weekend. The course can't be overpowered, and good drivers should have the advantage.

Hideki Matsuyama gained 10.1 strokes in this category last year in his 2021 victory. 

Total good-drive percentage in past 24 rounds:

1. C.T. Pan (89.6%) 
2. Carson Young (89.0%) 
3. Seamus Power (88.9%)
4. Satoshi Kodaira (88.3%) 
5. Ryo Hisatsune (88.0%)

Strokes-gained putting (Bentgrass)

An interesting aspect of the course is its double greens. The course has two greens on each hole to enable golfers to use the course year-round as different seasons require different grass types.

The green complexes themselves are quite tricky, and good Bentgrass putters should have an advantage. 

Strokes-gained putting (Bentgrass) past 24 rounds:

1. Davis Riley (+0.80) 
2. Xander Schauffele (+0.74)
3. Taylor Moore (+0.71)
4. Ryo Ishikawa (+0.70)
5. Patrick Fishburn (+0.63)

Par-3 scoring average

With five par-3s on the course, it is even more important than usual for golfers to play them efficiently.

Par-3 scoring average over past 24 rounds:

1. Harry Hall (2.79) 
2. Xander Schauffele (2.86) 
3. Nate Lashley (2.90) 
4. Nico Echavarria (2.90) 
5. Max Greyserman (2.91) 

Green-in-regulation percentage

Narashino Country Club is a fairly difficult golf course. Hitting greens in regulation will be a key for players who want to contend. 

Green-in-regulation percentage over past 24 rounds:

1. Matt Kuchar (79.2%) 
2. Patrick Fishburn (78.5%)
3. Doug Ghim (78.2%)
4. Beau Hossler (77.5%) 
5. Ben Kohles (77.3%) 

Course history

This statistic will factor in players to the model who’ve played Narashino Country Club well in past seasons. 

Course history per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Eric Cole (+2.51) 
2. Gary Woodland (+2.51)
3. Min Woo Lee (+2.01)
4. Beau Hossler (+1.83) 
5. Hideki Matsuyama (+1.73) 

Statistical model

Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of strokes-gained approach (25%) good-drive percentage (23%), green-in-regulation percentage (18%), strokes-gained par-3 (14%), strokes-gained putting (Bentgrass) (15%), and course history (15%).

1. Xander Schauffele 
2. Collin Morikawa 
3. Harry Hall
4. Gary Woodland
5. Hideki Matsuyama
6. Andrew Novak
7. Beau Hossler
8. Kurt Kitayama
9. J.J. Spaun
10. Ryo Histatune

Zozo championship picks

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Kurt Kitayama +2200

Kurt Kitayama has been one of the best ball strikers of the FedEx Cup Fall. At the Black Desert Championship, he gained 10.52 strokes on approach, which was second to only Lucas Glover. He hit the ball very well once again at last week’s Shriners Children’s Open, gaining 5.68 strokes on approach and 2.84 off the tee. 

While Kitayama’s finishes were very solid (T25 at Black Desert and T9 at Shriners), his struggles with the putter prevented him from contending at both events. At Black Desert, he lost 8.04 strokes putting and last week he lost 2.4 strokes putting. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 1st in the field in strokes-gained approach. 

While the struggles with the putter are difficult to ignore, it’s even more of a challenge to turn a blind eye to what Kurt is doing from tee to green. Given that this event has typically been a bit tougher to score at than the Black Desert and the Shriners, Kitayama may not have to make quite as many putts to contend. 

Last year, Kitayama finished T16 at the Zozo Championship, which was an improvement on the T29 from his first trip. The 31-year-old should be extremely comfortable playing in Japan as he played primarily on the Asian Tour in 2018. During his time on the Asian Tour, he finished fourth in the Asia-Pacific Diamond Cup Golf, which was held in Japan. 

Kitayama is in outstanding form and a major threat to challenge the big names in the field at the top of the leaderboard. 

Max Homa +5500

I seriously question whether Narashino Country Club is a course that can maximize the strengths of Max Homa, but at this price, I’m willing to find out. 

Homa had high expectations entering the 2024 season after winning three times in 2022-23 and having the best season of his career. Things didn’t go according to plan as he went winless in 2024. Despite struggling for much of the year, things seem as if they are headed back on the right track for the 33-year-old. 

At the Presidents Cup, Homa led the event in strokes-gained approach and once again looked like one of the best players on the American side. Homa has been open about his struggles on the course and was grinding to get back into form for the event. 

This is a “bet the number” talent play on Homa, who’s simply too good to be priced here in this week’s field. 

Gary Woodland +7500

Gary Woodland seems primed for a resurgent 2025 season. To kick off his FedEx Cup Fall, Woodland has finishes of T16 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and T9 at the Shriners Children’s Open. In Mississippi, Gary gained 7.04 strokes on approach, which ranked second in the field. 

Woodland was just as impressive at TPC Summerlin last week, and for seemingly the first time in months (years?) brought the putter with him. He gained 3.72 strokes with the putter, which is the most he’s gained in an event since the U.S. Open, where he missed the cut. His resurgent putter didn’t hurt the rest of his game, as the 41-year-old still ranked in the top 12 in both strokes-gained approach and strokes-gained ball striking. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks third in the field in strokes-gained approach. 

Back in 2020, Woodland made his only start at Narashino and finished 5th. It’s been a long road back for Woodland in terms of health but he finally seems as if he’s ready to contend once again on the PGA Tour. 

Rickie Fowler +8000

The 2024 season was one to forget for Rickie Fowler. The five-time PGA Tour winner went the entire season without a top-10 finish and only finished in the top 20 on two occasions. The fall season has already seen Fowler notch one top 20, as he finished T16 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and came close yet again last week with a T23 finish at the Shriners Children’s Open. 

In addition to the strong finishes, the ball striking over his past few starts has been encouraging for the 35-year-old. His performance at the Country Club of Jackson marked the first time since April that Rickie gained strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach in the same week. The potential trend continued last week at TPC Summerlin, where he gained 3.08 strokes on approach and 4.44 strokes off the tee. 

In 2022, Fowler finished in a tie for second place at Narashino, just one shot behind the winner, Keegan Bradley. He opened with rounds of 67-63-66 before shooting a final round 70, demonstrating his ability to navigate the course. 

Fowler, of course, has some ties to Japan. His maternal grandfather is Japanese which is where Rickie’s middle name, “Yutaka,” comes from. Yutaka’s last name is “Tanaka,” which Fowler has tattooed in Japanese on his left bicep. 

A few seasons ago, Fowler used his strong finish in Japan as a way to jumpstart a resurgent season which saw him win the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He will once again look to generate some momentum this week in hopes of returning to form in 2025. 

Ryo Hisatsune +12000 (FanDuel)

Ryo Hisatsune may just be the best Japanese player not named Hideki Matsuyama. While it would be an undeniable step up in class to beat the likes of Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa, I believe the 22-year-old will be comfortable playing in his home country. 

Hisatsune is young but is no stranger to winning golf tournaments. He’s already amassed four professional wins, with one coming at the Cazoo Open De France on the DP World Tour and the other three taking place on the Japan Tour. 

This fall, Ryo has teed it up at the Sanderson Farms Championship and the Black Desert Championship. Despite missing the cut in Mississippi, he still gained strokes on approach, and I never viewed Jackson CC as a great fit for the accurate Hitatsune. However, in Utah, he finished T25 and gained 2.8 strokes on approach. I view Narashino as a much better fit overall for the young up-and-comer. 

Hisatsune has gotten progressively better at the Zozo Championship in each of his past three starts. In 2021 he finished 52nd, but was excellent in 2022 (T12) and 2023 (T6). 

With a win this week, Hisatsune would take an enormous step towards becoming the next Japanese star in golf. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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