Buccaneers 2024 Win Total Projection (Regression Likely in Store for Tampa Bay)

Iain MacMillan | Jun 25, 2024

Jan 21, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) passes the ball against the Detroit Lions during the second half in a 2024 NFC divisional round game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports / Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the lowly NFC South in 2023, but they made the most of the opportunity and beat the defending NFC Champions in the first round of the playoffs, beating the Philadelphia Eagles in an upset.

Not only that, but they were close to pulling off a second-straight upset in the second round, narrowly losing to the Detroit Lions.

Now, Tampa Bay fans have a tough season ahead of them as some new life has been breathed into the division by the Atlanta Falcons signing Kirk Cousins. Should we expect the Bucs to have another strong season and win the division once again?

Oddsmakers have released projected win totals for all 32 teams. Let's take a look at how many wins they expect the Bucs to rack up in 2024.

All odds listed in this article are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Buccaneers Win Total for 2024 NFL Season

• OVER 7.5 Wins (-150)
• UNDER 7.5 Wins (+125)

After a 9-8 record in 2023, the Buccaneers' win total is set at 7.5 for 2024, predicting a slight regression from last year's performance. The good news is the OVER is the favored side at -150, meaning there's an implied probability of 60% the Bucs will win at least eight games in 2024.

The downside is eight or nine wins is unlikely to be good enough to win the division once again in 2024. The Falcons win total is two games higher at 9.5 and both Atlanta and the New Orleans Saints have significantly easier schedules than the Buccaneers. Based on the projected win total of their opponents, the Falcons have the easiest schedule in the NFL and the Saints have the fifth easiest. Meanwhile, the Bucs come in at 11th on that list.

The Bucs' made some key re-signings in Baker Mayfield, Jordan Whitehead, and Antoine Winfield Jr., but didn't make any big splashes in new acquisitions. Will they be able to build off last year's nine win season despite not making any significant improvements to their roster? Oddsmakers aren't convinced they will.

If you believe in them next season, go ahead and bet on them over at DraftKings.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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