Best College Football Prop Bets for Week 12: How to Bet Shedeur Sanders' Passing Yards Props

Reed Wallach | 2 Hours Ago

Oct 19, 2024; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Colorado Buffalos quarterback Shedeur Sanders (2) reacts against the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

As the season continues to progress, we get more data points and matchups to attack in the player prop market.

With big games up and down the Week 12 slate, let’s target some of the high profile quarterbacks on Saturday’s slate, including star quarterback Sheduer Sanders. However, with an elite Utah defense coming to Boulder with an early kickoff, should you go UNDER on his passing yard prop?

Here’s three player props to attack in the Week 12 slate.

Best College Football Prop Bets for Week 12

Shedeur Sanders UNDER 320.5 Passing Yards
Dylan Raiola OVER 190.5 Passing Yards
Rocco Becht OVER 250.5 Passing Yards

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Shedeur Sanders UNDER 320.5 Passing Yards

It may not be pleasant to fade this emerging Colorado offense, but this passing yard prop is far too high in a likely favorable game script against an elite defense.

The Utes have fallen off in Big 12 play due to its struggling offense, but the defense remains top 20 in the country in EPA/Play and will be the best defense that Colorado has faced this season.

Given that the Utes are a mess on offense, the team hasn’t scored more than 21 points in the last five games, I don’t believe we see Sanders put the ball in harm’s way and force the ball down the field.

Utah will force the Buffaloes to drive the field methodically and mix it up instead of dropping back on every down.

Fade the uptick in price on Sanders after he played in a shootout against Texas Tech and side with the under.

Dylan Raiola OVER 190.5 Passing Yards

Raiola’s play has fallen off as the year has gone on as the freshman appeared to hit a bit of a wall and also suffered a back injury.

However, with a new play caller and a week to recover, as well as a shaky defense on the other side, I believe we will see Raiola find his form in Los Angeles.

Raiola went over this mark in five of nine games and with such a low bar to clear, I fancy his chances of finding his early season form with some fresh play calling.

Further, the matchup sets up nicely for Raiola against a poor USC pass rush. The Trojans are near the national average in pass rush grading, per Pro Football Focus, and are outside the top 100 in sacks this season.

Without being able to put pressure on Raiola, Nebraska’s signal caller should find plenty of success through the air. This season, Raiola is completing 70% of his passes when kept clear with nine big time throws to four turnover worthy plays, up from 46% when he is under pressure with only three big time throws.

This is a plus matchup for Raiola to get over this number.

Rocco Becht OVER 250.5 Passing Yards

Becht has had little issue getting over this number, clearing in all but one Big 12 game this season and all but two games on the season.

He’ll face a Cincinnati defense that grades out around the national average in most key statistics, including EPA/Play (62nd), EPA/Pass (69th) and EPA/Rush (59th).

However, the team has been vulnerable to chunk gains through the passing game, ranking 120th in explosive pass rate allowed this season. The Bearcats defense doesn’t allow many catches, but when they do it goes for a ton.

With that in mind, I’ll side with Becht’s over passing yards. As noted, he has cleared this plenty of times this season and I believe that the team continues to hunt big gains in the passing game as the running games continue to produce middling results (outside top 60 in yards per carry and EPA/Rush).

I think Becht’s passing yards over is the best way to attack the Iowa State player props.

Best College Football Prop Bets for Week 12

Shedeur Sanders UNDER 320.5 Passing Yards

Dylan Raiola OVER 190.5 Passing Yards

Rocco Becht OVER 250.5 Passing Yards

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