CFL 2024 Season Week 15 Game Preview/Prediction: Toronto Argonauts at BC Lions
On the surface, Friday's Week 15 showdown in BC between the 7-6 Lions and the 6-6 Toronto Argonauts is a clash between near equals. However, the Leos and Boatmen are two ships sailing in different directions.
A lot has changed for both teams since their Week 1 meeting three months ago, which saw a then-Cameron Dukes-led Argos top Vernon Adams and the Lions by a margin of 35-27 in Toronto.
BC won five straight after losing its opening game with Adams at the controls at a record-setting pace. But the worm turned for the Lions as they dropped five consecutive games, and even a returning Nathan Rourke in place of an injured Adams didn't initially halt the losing skid. But in the last two games, BC and Rourke have recaptured their mojo, beating two of the league's best in Montreal and Ottawa in convincing fashion.
The tide hasn't turned for topsy-turvy Toronto since 2023 league M.O.P. Chad Kelly returned from a lengthy suspension. The Boatmen are 1-2 since getting their star pivot back on board. Key defections in the offseason, injuries and a lack of discipline from Ryan Dinwiddie's bunch have seen Double Blue fail to match their lofty standards set in recent seasons. As a result, Toronto is teetering on the edge of missing the postseason.
Game Information
Line: Lions -5, O/U 52
Date/Location: Friday, September 13, 2024, at BC Place Stadium in Vancouver, CA
Kickoff Time: 10 pm EST
TV/Streaming: TSN, RDS, CFL+
Lineup Notes
We are back at home this Friday! Here is your Week 15 #BCLions Depth Chart:@PlayNowSports 🏈 pic.twitter.com/Pq0MsFiVTx
— BC LIONS (@BCLions) September 12, 2024
Toronto continues to trot forward without several key players in its lineup. Superstar linebacker Wynton McManis and stout defensive tackle Jared Brinkman are among the prominent Argos still missing in action.
Despite having a lengthy injury report heading into Week 15, all of the Leos' top players are good to go, like veteran defensive backs Ciante Evans and Garry Peters.
Keys To The Game
Toronto's history playing in BC hasn't been a pretty one, being outscored 99-11 in the Argos' last two trips out West.
The last time Toronto squared off against Nathan Rourke in BC Place, the Argos were demolished 44-3. In that meeting two years ago, Rourke threw for 436 yards and four touchdowns.
The Boatmen have struggled mightily getting out of the box on the road in their last two games. The Argonauts fell behind Hamilton 21-3 on Labour Day, and then followed that up with a 31-3 halftime deficit in Ottawa.
The Argos can ill afford to repeat their recent pattern of early sleepwalking against a wide-awake Lions team in their building.
Toronto has fallen behind in games and abandoned its ground attack, becoming one-dimensional and predictable in the process. The Argos must reestablish balance offensively and lean on Kadeem Carey and the play-action game to strike big plays.
Look for BC to attack Toronto's secondary from all angles. Rourke's ability to throw on the move is something the Argos have struggled against this season. The Boatmen's run defense is among the best in the CFL, so the mode of attack will be through the air against an Argos defensive backfield that has been susceptible to allowing explosive plays. BC is second in the CFL in pass plays over 30 yards. If the Leos line can keep Rourke clean, he should have success.
Both teams have combined to allow the most sacks in the CFL — Toronto has 33 and BC stands at 28) — so whichever defense gets home the most should secure the victory.
Prediction
Toronto's coaching staff has done poorly this season in game planning and getting their players to execute. The Double Blue have been an undisciplined bunch.
The Argos lead the league in offensive and special teams penalties by a wide margin. Toronto is also second to last in turnovers.
Therefore, it's challenging to envision a scenario in which the Argonauts suddenly flip the switch after 12 games and change their 2024 DNA.
Beating the Lions in BC is daunting enough and won't happen if Toronto predictably continues to beat itself.
BC Lions 44 Toronto Argonauts 26
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MIKE MITCHELL