CFL Week 20 Game Preview: Ottawa Redblacks at Toronto Argonauts In Pivotal Showdown with Playoff Ramifications
CFL 2024 Season Week 20 Game Preview: Ottawa Redblacks @ Toronto Argonauts, Saturday, October 19, BMO Field, 3 pm ET, TV: CTV, CFL+ | Radio: TSN 1050
There are two weekends left in the 2024 CFL regular season. With all six playoff spots sewn up, all that remains is determining where three postseason games will be played. Out West, the hosting teams haven't been determined yet.
But in the East, defending Grey Cup champion Montreal will host the East Final on Saturday, November 9.
The Alouettes will square off with either Toronto or Ottawa, who will meet on November 2. But before we get there, there's the matter of where the East Semi-Final will be played.
Week 20's showdown between the 9-7 Argos and 8-7-1 Redblacks on Saturday afternoon in Toronto could determine who hosts that pivotal playoff contest.
It took 14 regular season weeks for Ottawa and Toronto to square off for the first time. The two Ontario rivals will now see each other twice in the next three weeks.
Back on September 7, the RedBlacks soundly defeated the Boatmen in resounding fashion, racing out to a 31-3 halftime lead at home before closing up shop with a 41-27 victory. Since then, Ottawa has lost four straight games. Despite the late-season slump, Bob Dyce's squad locked up a spot in the postseason for the first time since 2018.
Conversely, Toronto has won three of its last four games since being humbled by Ottawa in Week 14. The Argonauts have clinched a postseason spot for the fourth consecutive season after back-to-back triumphs over Montreal and Winnipeg. Exacting revenge on Ottawa this weekend would guarantee Double Blue its first home Semi-final playoff game since 2012.
Keys And Game Notes
DraftKings has the Argos as 4.5-point favorites at home. The Over/Under is set at 49.5. The current kickoff forecast by Weather.com shows sunny conditions with a high of 18C. Winds SW at 10 to 15 km/h.
- The Redblacks have never swept a season series with Toronto; the last Ottawa team to do so was the Rough Riders in 1985.
- Toronto leads the all-time series versus Ottawa, 150-110-5, including 18-6 against the REDBLACKS.
- Chad Kelly is 2-1 as a starter against Ottawa. He had a career-high 463 passing yards and three touchdowns in the team’s Week 14 matchup.
Ottawa enacted a perfect storm against Toronto the last time these two rivals squared off. The Redblacks forced seven total turnovers and four interceptions by Kelly, two of them pick-sixes, immediately taking control and forcing the Argos to play catch-up mode down 28 points.
In fact, since then, Ottawa hasn't led in any of its games. The Redblacks offense has been lost in the woods the last month since their 41-point effort against Toronto. As a result, Ottawa is second to last in the CFL in scoring, ahead of only Calgary.
Quarterback Dru Brown has to rebound and get back to playing at the level he did earlier this season. He played his cleanest game against Toronto last time out, turnover-free, completing 75% of his passes while throwing for 349 yards and a score.
The Redblacks have often beaten themselves. The team leads the league in penalties and is second to last in turnover ratio. Bob Dyce's squad must get back to playing disciplined football if they are to stop their current skid.
Is Toronto finally peaking at the right time? Each time this season they've shown a glimpse of the dominant team they were a year ago, they've stumbled. The Boatmen are playing balanced mistake-free football, coming off consecutive wins against Montreal and in Winnipeg.
The Argos achilles heel this season has been poor starts and an inability for the offense to cash in touchdowns. Toronto has relied heavily on kicker Liram Hajrullahu, who is having an otherworldly season, connecting on 51 of 55 kicks.
Prediction
The analytics point to a comfortable win for Toronto win Saturday. The Argos are at home, playing an Ottawa team on short rest that has lost the magic it had earlier this season. But the Redblacks are playing in what amounts to the franchise's most important regular-season game in six years. I expect them to give Toronto their best punch.
I am leaning toward an Argonauts victory, but much like their entire 2024 campaign, it won't be smooth sailing.
Toronto Argonauts 29 Ottawa Redblacks 27
Due to ticket demand for Saturday afternoon's #Argos/Redblacks game, there are now seats available in the upper deck on the east side of BMO Field. The place will be rocking! Join us by purchasing your tickets at https://t.co/E3MA5N14nP
— x-Mike Hogan (@MikeHoganArgos) October 17, 2024
You can find Mike Mitchell on X @ByMikeMitchell.
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