Grey Cup Odds for Montreal Alouettes Improve After Upset Last Week
The odds of the Montreal Alouettes winning the Grey Cup are five times greater than just a week ago. Upsetting the Toronto Argonauts in the Eastern Final has a way of improving a team’s chances.
So what does that mean going into the championship clash Sunday against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers? Would you put your money on the Als winning the whole thing?
CFL Simulation wouldn’t.
Yes, the chances of Montreal claiming the Grey Cup before the division final were just 9.03%. That’s risen to 45% since the stunning 38-17 victory over the Argos.
So, doing the math, the Blue Bombers are the favorites at 55%. Winnipeg was also predicted to come out of the West last week and is favored by two points in the Grey Cup, according to CFL Simulation.
According to CFL.ca, the Simulation model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket. For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics.
Here’s a preview for the 110th Grey Cup, with injuries, storylines and more.
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