Collectibles On SI

How a Recession Could Help or Hurt Card Collectors

As economists and market analysts look ahead to the possibility of an economic recession, collectors are right to wonder what impact tough times might have on their collections as well as the Hobby at large.

Jason Schwartz

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Unemployment denial letters / BRIAN HAYES / STATESMAN JOURNAL via Imagn Content Services, LLC

In the last two weeks alone, major financial firms such as J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morningstar have all revised their economic projections to account for significantly increased risks of a recession. Without a doubt, that's bad news for the country, not to mention the world, but what about the Hobby angle? What might a recession mean to card collectors? Let's begin with the bad news, but I promise there will be at least SOME good news too.

First and foremost, difficult economic times tend to depress discretionary spending, either because consumers are experiencing hardship (e.g., job loss, higher food costs, cratering of financial portfolios) or planning for it. When times are good, a collector may think nothing of a $200 trading card purchase, but when times are bad it's hard to hit that "Buy it now!" button, not knowing if that same money might be needed for actual necessities.

Baseball cards are part of the Elliott Museum's large collection of signed memorabilia including bats and balls from the Major Leagues, the Negro Leagues and the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League. Some of the notable signatures include Shoeless Joe Jackson, Hank Aaron, Jackie Robinson, Nolan Ryan, Ted Williams, Derek Jeter, Bob Feller, Ralph Kiner and Babe Ruth. / CRYSTAL VANDER WEIT/TCPALM / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Sometimes the saying "tightening the money belt" is used to describe this phenomenon. Good chance you're there already or at least know other collectors who are holding off, at least for now, on some trading card purchases they might normally have made just a month or two ago. Or on the other side of the coin, maybe you're finally considering lower offers on that LeBron rookie card you've had listed since August.

So yeah, that's the bad news for collectors. Across the board, demand for sports cards, collectibles, and other optional goods tends to fall off significantly during a recession. Buyers simply have less to spend, and sellers as a result are either forced to choose between stagnant sales or lowering prices. Potentially, there is even impact beyond the sphere of individual buyers and sellers. A company like Fanatics, recognizing consumers have less to spend, may trim down its product line by decreasing production levels or pausing certain lower-performing product lines. Other possibilities include reducing the number of cards per pack, packs per box, or boxes per case.

Still, there may be some upside to a downturn, at least for some collectors. While a down economy is never cause for celebration--after all, real people are losing their jobs, their housing, and their savings--the reality is that not everyone will be hit equally hard by a recession. Many individuals, collectors included, will have little enough trouble covering necessities that their discretionary spending remains healthy as ever. And for those collectors, the recession will be a gold mine filled with bargains galore. That card they passed on at ten grand? Well, the seller just lowered the price to eight! The neighbor with the signed Jordan rookie he swore he'd never sell? Never say never, right?

In other words, a recession will create tremendous opportunity for at least some collectors to "buy the dip." Of course, even that strategy assumes that the dip is just that, Were a recession to progress into a downright depression, then even the best deals from that "dip" won't look so good anymore. In the end, perhaps the best thing we collectors can do is to take the advice of White Lotus, season three, patriarch Tim Ratliff [SPOILER ALERT]: "Things are about to change. We'll get through it...as a family. We're a strong family, and nothing's more important than family, right?"

Whether the recession comes or doesn't, whether our collectors suffer or grow, and whether Fanatics puts out a 2025 Topps Heritage High Numbers products in Spring 2026 or not, really these are things not a single one of us has any real control over. Ultimately, about all we can control is keeping our Hobby community strong, looking out for each other, and recognizing that all of us--or at least most of us--are going through all of this together. Keep the faith, Hobby family, and best of luck to you all. ️

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Jason Schwartz
JASON SCHWARTZ

Jason A. Schwartz is a collectibles expert whose work can be found regularly at SABR Baseball Cards, Hobby News Daily, and 1939Bruins.com. His collection of Hank Aaron baseball cards and memorabilia is currently on exhibit at the Atlanta History Center, and his collectibles-themed artwork is on display at the Honus Wagner Museum and PNC Park.

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