Luis Tiant, Dick Allen Top Hobby Hopefuls for Hall of Fame
Collectors have long been aware that cards of Hall of Famers are in a league of their own when it comes to value and collectibility. For this reason, there is reason to hope (or at least speculate) whenever a new Hall of Fame ballot is announced.
Just this week, the Hall of Fame released the names of the eight players under consideration by the Classic Baseball Era Committee. If that phrase is a mouthful, think of it as players, including Negro Leaguers, whose main contributions came before 1980. Voting results will be announced on December 8, 2024, live on MLB Network.
Before taking a deeper look at the players and their cards, we’ll start by reviewing the rules. Per the Hall of Fame website, there will be 16 voters, and each voter will be able to select up to 3 candidates. Election to the Hall of Fame will require a minimum of 12 votes. At least mathematically, this means it’s possible to see as few as no players elected or as many as four.
Anyone following similar elections in the past knows that the only outcome truly predictable from such elections is that the results will be somewhat unpredictable. Recent surprises from special committee elections included Dick Allen’s narrow miss in 2021 and Harold Baines’ election in 2018. Though I’m very ready to be wrong, here are my predictions, along with their impact on trading card values.
Probably In
Luis Tiant
El Tiante, who passed away last month, is easily one of the top pitchers not yet enshrined. Since his passing, many fans and historians, including Society for American Baseball Research president Mark Armour, have expressed displeasure at Tiant’s omission from the Hall's plaque gallery.
Make no mistake. It is a colossal failure on the part of the Hall of Fame that Luis Tiant never stood on that stage and collected his flowers. Unforgivable. pic.twitter.com/zWe0BD8StT
— Mark Armour (@MarkArmour04) October 9, 2024
At the moment, Tiant’s rookie card from the 1965 Topps set is extremely affordable. Look for that to change if Tiant collects the dozen votes he needs.
Dick Allen
Dick Allen is among the players whose Cooperstown case is most aided by modern analytics. While his numbers may not have jumped off the baseball card, the statistical savants among us now recognize Allen’s offensive numbers to be absolutely elite for the era in which he played.
Dick shares a very affordable rookie card in the 1964 Topps set with John Herrnstein, and this is probably the card collectors will covet. However, his solo card from the 1965 set, which includes the glorious Topps All-Star Rookie trophy, should also enjoy a nice bump.
Possibly In
Dave Parker
Though he fared poorly in previous opportunities, look for Cobra to do much better this time around. Though his career numbers are hardly eye-popping when viewed through the lens of modern analytics, Parker has one thing going for him that five of the other candidates do not: He is still with us.
Lately, more and more fans (and I suspect voters as well) are realizing that Hall of Fame inductions are far more meaningful when the players are here to enjoy them. Though Parker is still relatively young, he has long been battling Parkinson’s Disease, and many voters will no doubt recognize that the best way to ensure Cobra is here to enjoy his accolades is to get him in now. Unfortunately, I don’t believe twelve voters will act on that point, meaning I expect Cobra’s 1974 Topps rookie card to remain very affordable.
Tommy John
Despite winning 288 games, it may well be that the pitcher Tommy John is only the third Tommy John you think about when you hear the name Tommy John. (He most certainly trails the surgery bearing his name and very likely trails the underwear as well.)
Like Tiant, John’s numbers make a persuasive case for him as one of the top pitchers on the outside looking in. And while it may be that Dr. Frank Jobe deserves even more credit than John for the famous surgical procedure, there are certainly Hall watchers who believe John’s role in coming back from the operation adds significantly to his Cooperstown cred. Finally, of course, John, like Parker, is still alive.
In truth, the decision of Tiant vs. John may well be a toss-up. However, I believe the recency of Tiant’s passing has him more on the minds of voters. Were it easy to select both (and Dick Allen!) I'd like John’s chances. However, I expect to see John fall just short. As such, I don’t foresee much movement on John’s 1964 Topps rookie card, shared with Bob Chance. Still, collectors chasing the 1967 Topps set may want to grab their Tommy John card now rather than take any chances that he makes the cut. As one of the set’s ultra-tough high numbers, this card could very quickly soar from pricey to unattainable if my predictions prove incorrect.
Doubtful
While I’d personally support the candidacies of at least three of the remaining four players, I don’t expect any to come anywhere close to the requisite twelve votes.
- Personally, I would LOVE to see Garv, who I idolized as a kid, make the Hall. Sadly, his ten all-star selections and five pennants in eleven years just don’t have the same effect on voters as they did on his millions of fans back in the day.
- Vic Harris may well be the most deserving of the eight men on the ballot, but my guess is that most voters will be hearing his name for the very first time this month.
- John Donaldson is another Negro Leaguer who will likely fall short, due more to the limited knowledge of voters than to his own achievements and record.
- Ken Boyer was the biggest surprise on the ballot, at least in my opinion. I would be surprised if he garners more than a single vote.
Once again, it’s easy to be wrong with predictions like these, so take everything I’ve said with a grain of salt. Still, were I looking to buy before prices go up, the four cards I’d grab before December would be the 1965 Tiant, the 1964 and 1965 Allen, and (just in case) the 1967 John. Of course, regardless of the vote, can you ever go wrong picking up cards of any of the eight players on the ballot? To paraphrase the late Buck O’Neill, if they are Hall of Famers in your heart, maybe that’s all that matters.
Jason A. Schwartz is a collectibles expert whose work can be found regularly at SABR Baseball Cards, Hobby News Daily, and 1939Bruins.com. His collection of Hank Aaron baseball cards and memorabilia is currently on exhibit at the Atlanta History Center, and his collectibles-themed artwork is on display at the Honus Wagner Museum and PNC Park.