Manufactured Scarcity: Are Your Rare Cards Really That Rare?
With the recent release of 2025 Topps Baseball Series One, collectors everywhere are frantically opening packs in search of the ultimate unicorn: a 1/1 (pronounced "one of one"). For those not in the know, a card marked "1/1" means it is truly unique. Only a single example of the card was ever made. (By comparison, there are at least 50 copies of the T206 Honus Wagner known to exist.)
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So yeah, these 1/1 cards are pricey, and why shouldn't they be! They're incredibly super-duper rare, aren't they? Well, yes and no. Now my "yes" answer requires no explanation at all since the only thing rarer than a 1/1, at least in theory, would be something that doesn't even exist! My "no" answer, however, may leave many of you puzzled, so here's what I mean.
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Let's move over to Freddie's teammate, Shohei Ohtani. Without a doubt, pulling a Shohei 1/1 would make all but the most jaded collector post "OMFG. Shaking..." to social meda, or at the very least, "dID i dO gOoD?" Probably the last thing they'd be thinking about is the fact that their once-in-a-lifetime pull is simply one of at least 4,413 Shohei Ohtani 1/1 cards in existence. (If you don't believe me, here's the list!) Now let's face it, that's a LOT of incredibly super-duper rare Ohtani cards!
Okay, but what about other players? Sticking only to baseball, the number of known 1/1 cards resides at 1,562,647, and it's not like this number is sitting still. In fact, the number grew by 107,704 in 2024 alone! Were we to assume linear growth, we'd be at two million 1/1 cards in under five years, but the truth is the pace is more likely exponential. In other words, good chance we'll hit ten million by the end of the decade, and who knows where the heck it goes from there.
It's not hard to imagine, then, a world where the number of 1/1 baseball cards is greater than the number of collectors. In fact, we might be there already! Now ask yourself this question. If everyone had a 1/1, wouldn't that, by definition, mean 1/1s just aren't that rare?
Baseball fans may know the Yogi Berra quote about the restaurant nobody goes to anymore because it's too crowded. Meanwhile, here in the Hobby, we may be on a collision course to a world where these 1/1 cards are so rare everybody's buying tons of them!
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Jason A. Schwartz is a collectibles expert whose work can be found regularly at SABR Baseball Cards, Hobby News Daily, and 1939Bruins.com. His collection of Hank Aaron baseball cards and memorabilia is currently on exhibit at the Atlanta History Center, and his collectibles-themed artwork is on display at the Honus Wagner Museum and PNC Park.