Paul Skenes, Livvy Dunne, and the Ghosts of Hobby Past
It was one of the most anticipated starts of my lifetime. Had any pitcher in recent history taken the mound with more raw talent? And had any pitcher ever commanded such hype across the Hobby? Of course, sometimes hype is exactly that: just hype. This time, however, there were the results to go with it.
Paul Skenes’ 1/1 “2024 NL ROY” Rookie Autograph Card Has Been Pulled
The rookie right hander, picked first overall in the amateur draft, towered over batters, standing 6'7'' and tipping the scales north of 210 pounds. His blazing fastball was impossible to overlook, but it was his dazzling array of other pitches that left hitters looking like Little Leaguers. How was it even possible that only the year before, this marvel on the mound was pitching for the LSU Tigers in the College World Series?
Fast forward a month, and the stats were every bit what you'd expect. Through five starts, a perfect 5-0 record bolstered by an impossibly stingy 1.72 ERA. Naturally, the ace pitcher's cards, which were already sizzling, were now scorching hot. As good as this rookie was already, he was only going to get better. Collectors knew this kid was the real deal. His name was Ben McDonald.
Despite a very respectable career (78-70 record, 20.8 WAR), McDonald ranks high on most collectors' lists of the biggest busts in Hobby history. Were you to stumble upon a slabbed McDonald today, the holder would less likely be PSA than it would a Lucite screw-down from the early 1990s. Where collectors hoped Big Ben's name would eventually reside among those of Tom Seaver, Sandy Koufax, and Christy Mathewson, his closest Hobby comps may well be Todd Van Poppel, Brien Taylor, and Kevin Maas.
The question then for Paul Skenes collectors is evident. Will Skenes follow a similar path to that of McDonald, or will he forge a very different future, both on the mound and in the Hobby? Though nobody has a crystal ball, it seems useful to at least look at the relevant history.
Paul Skenes Looks on as Livvy Dunne Shines in First Gymnastics Meet of Season
In the last 125 years, known as the "live ball" era, there have been only 24 AL/NL starting pitchers with more than 100 innings pitched and an ERA below 2.50 in their rookie year. Skenes is one, and Ben McDonald is another. Other familiar names on the list include Montreal Expos ace Steve Rogers (134 IP, 1.54 ERA), Detroit Tigers phenom Mark Fidrych (250.1 IP, 2.34 ERA), and Los Angeles Dodgers legend Fernando Valenzuela (192.1 IP, 2.48 ERA).
Most of the names, however, would be wholly unfamiliar to all but the most ardent students of baseball history. Ah, and not a one would be found in the hallowed halls of Cooperstown. None of this is to say Paul Skenes is doomed, but it does provide some sobering context for his other-worldly rookie season.
In 2024, the world saw Paul Skenes make history. However, if his cards are to stay just as hot in 2025 and beyond, Paul Skenes will need to break history. If anyone can do it, Skenes definitely has what it takes. Still, the ghosts of Hobby past will be chasing him every step of the way, and long time collectors know this well: If these ghosts are anything, it's relentless.
Are My Old Baseball Cards Worth Anything?
Jason A. Schwartz is a collectibles expert whose work can be found regularly at SABR Baseball Cards, Hobby News Daily, and 1939Bruins.com. His collection of Hank Aaron baseball cards and memorabilia is currently on exhibit at the Atlanta History Center, and his collectibles-themed artwork is on display at the Honus Wagner Museum and PNC Park.