The Hobby Mistake Sports Card Collectors Keep Making
It's happened again. There were talks of Victor Wembanyama's trajectory leading him into his second season averaging 35 points and 15 rebounds per game. His rookie cards skyrocketed in value and, as always, have begun their descent back to earth. This is the recurring theme that collectors don't seem to learn from.
This often stems from impulsivity and a lack of patience. In 99% of cases, it takes more than the start of a player's second season to catapult them into the MVP conversation. Combine that with the hype surrounding a new release of a player's rookie cards, and the result is almost always the same: an inevitable downfall in their prices when they don't compete for an MVP in their second year. Below is a chart from Card Ladder illustrating the decline in Victor Wembanyama's card prices over the past few months.
One would think that after Trey Lance's best rookie card went from selling for $132,000 at its peak to $7,350 a couple of months ago, or after Mac Jones' base Donruss cards dropped from $4,000 to $5 (yes, you read that correctly), collectors would stop continuously overpaying for a prospect's rookie cards upon release. But it seems the hobby just never learns.
This may officially be the WORST trading card flip of all-time…
— The Collectibles Guru (@ericwhiteback) October 27, 2023
Bought on 8/18/22: $132,000
Sold on 10/22/23: $7,350
Hold time: 14 months
Profit: -$124,650 (-94.43%)
Absolutely brutal…can’t imagine thinking a $100k+ Trey Lance was a good buy. pic.twitter.com/CcxfiDvLQb
Especially in the case of Victor Wembanyama, collectors can only blame themselves. He was a rookie center, a position typically less sought after than guards, yet he was often selling for prices higher than Shaquille O'Neal. It's important to note that this isn't a knock on Wemby - he's an exceptional talent with otherworldly defensive capabilities. But remember, Shaq averaged 38 points, 16.7 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks during his first championship. We need to stop setting unreasonable expectations and attaching sky-high price tags to players based on potential alone.
Jason is a dedicated basketball card collector who recently transitioned into writing and educating others about the sports card industry. Find him on Instagram @jeancardz