Tua Tagovailoa Continues His Comeback But Card Prices Remain Down
The Miami Dolphins are 5-6, in 8th place in the AFC. While they are still a longshot to make the playoffs, they've come a long way since falling to 2-6. One of the biggest reasons for the team's resurgence is Tua Tagovailoa, who missed four games after suffering his third concussion in five seasons.
After the concussion, there were whispers that Tagovailoa would - and should - retire. But Tagovailoa never entertained retirement. He has been vindicated in his return by becoming one of the top passers this season. He has silenced his doubters for now.
Tua Tagovailoa is dialed in, putting up big numbers in his last five games. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/BnBT3sLyRc
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 27, 2024
The Dolphins march into their Thanksgiving matchup against the Green Bay Packers looking to get to .500. It's another opportunity for Tagovailoa to prove he is one of the league's best quarterbacks.
But while his inspired play continues on the field, his card performance has slumped largely because of his injury and the perception that he is not a durable player.
While numerous Tagovailoa rookie cards from sets vary in price range, his most popular cards are currently in a slump. Tua's 2020 Panini Silver Prizm PSA 10, a card with a PSA population of 203, is more than 55% down from where it was in late August.
There are a few things at play with his price. The first is that in anticipation of the NFL season and the hype cycle, football cards will typically be at their highest price in late August. As the season unfolds, most cards will drop in price even if a player is having a good season. The hype machine dies down, and so do prices.
The second factor is that Tagovailoa's injury has scared away buyers. Card Ladder data shows that on Sept. 9, a Silver Prizm PSA 10 sold for $500. Tagovailoa was injured on Sept. 12. The next sale of a PSA 10 Silver Prizm wasn't recorded for almost another month, on Oct. 6, for $300. The market was trying to coalesce around Tua's post-concussion price, settling at $200 less than the previous selling price.
The prices have yet to recover. A third factor is at play, and it's also health-related. Tua has had three concussions in five years, and one has to wonder, irrespective of card prices, what would happen to his health if he suffered a fourth concussion. No one wants to see it, but it's the kind of thinking and worrying about the future that affects markets.
The market is down across several of Tua's mid-level rookie cards. The Silver Prizm is indicative of what's happening in the market. Tagovailoa's lower-priced cards show a lower variance and, in some cases, gains from sales in August. But that's also because there's less risk involved with lower-priced cards.
One thing is certain: for Tagovailoa fans waiting to buy some of his quality cards, now is a good time to jump into the market. When Tua is healthy, he's one of the NFL's premier quarterbacks.
