Baseball Card Market Shows Healthy Signs Heading Into 2024 Season
Sports card collectors typically anticipate a price decline for baseball cards prior to Spring Training, but trades and signings featuring stars like Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani have the market sitting in an unexpected position.
According to the Baseball 2018-2020 Index from Market Movers, the ultra-modern baseball market has started to see the expected offseason downtown while dropping 2% collectively over the last 30 days. The surprising aspect, however, is that these cards are still up by a substantial margin over the last 90 days.
While it may appear that the 90-day data is a result of World Series hype, the market for this group of ultra-modern cards saw its biggest spikes in early- to mid-December, which aligns with Soto’s trade to the New York Yankees and Ohtani’s deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Major takeaways from that data could include several things. First, Ohtani’s hype has been a real price driver and major events — on or off the diamond — could be greatly impacting the baseball market. Next, we can see that the ultra-modern baseball card market has also closely mirrored the SCI 500, Sports Card Investor’s Index that measures the overall state of the card market. Over the last 60 days, the Baseball 2018-2020 Index is up 4% while the SCI 500 is up 4%.
This is a trend worth monitoring as we typically expect a decline in baseball card prices as focus shifts to the NFL postseason and the NBA regular season. This simply wasn’t the case this year.
Spring Showcase Games
Another point to track will be the MLB Spring Breakout, a new event that will showcase the top prospects from each organization. Collectors may see a rise in pricing for top prospects on cards from Bowman Draft, Bowman Baseball and Bowman Chrome Baseball with the increased media coverage.
Does Spring Training Hype Drive Baseball Card Prices?
As for Spring Training, data from 2023 suggests that products from 2018 and after could see a healthy bump in pricing — last year’s Spring Training resulted in a 3% spike.
Are Prices Sustainable Across the Long Season?
From the day Spring Training ended to the day the Rangers won the World Series, ultra-modern baseball cards from 2018 through 2020 saw a 29% falloff, which was 20% worse than the SCI 500’s drop over that time period (9%).
Overall, this data points to a healthier baseball card market than in previous years from a price perspective. Whether you’re building your personal collection or securing prospects to flip, now is the time to start thinking seriously about your plan for the upcoming season.
