Brock Purdy's MVP Campaign and Low Print Runs Have His Card Market Thriving
One thing the NFL has offered this year has been opportunity. In a whirlwind season that has seen several top teams fail to meet expectations, and an astounding 22% of the starting quarterbacks sidelined for the year, players like Josh Dobbs and Jake Browning have been tossed into bigger roles. But over the last year, it’s hard to argue that any player has benefited more from a series of injuries than Brock Purdy.
The final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Purdy essentially appeared out of thin air as a result of injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo. More than a year since his debut, Purdy has a booming card market that sits close to the top of the QB landscape. Despite earning the starting job after two injuries, Purdy didn’t disappoint. He led the 49ers to the NFC Championship while watching his card market grow substantially over that same period.
What’s been even more impressive is that his relevance in the hobby has yet to fall off. Through 14 games, Purdy has completed nearly 70% of his passes for 3,795 yards, 29 TDs and just seven interceptions. He’s the betting favorite to win MVP and his card market has followed accordingly.
It’s not uncommon for top draft picks to get immediate hobby traction, but Purdy has managed to create his market without the pre-draft hype — it’s all been because of his play. Despite being Mr. Irrelevant, Purdy’s prices reflect those of top picks from previous years.
Comparing Purdy to other popular QBs across the league, his key cards stand out when using Market Movers data. Looking at Optic Base PSA 10 rookies, Purdy lags behind Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, but he’s well ahead of Joe Burrow and nearly three times what Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa are selling for.
Looking at more expensive cards, Purdy falls behind Burrow but remains ahead of the rest of the 2020 class when comparing Prizm Silver PSA 10s and Contenders Rookie Ticket Autograph PSA 10s.
Print Run Discrepancies
When looking at card prices, it’s important not to overlook supply and demand. Print run volumes play a major factor in pricing. The number of overall products that a player appears in is critical too. Comparing Purdy to another 2022 QB in Kenny Pickett, for example, shows that the lack of draft hype around Purdy greatly impacted the number of products he was in as well as the overall number of cards available on the market.
According to Trading Card Database (TCDB.com), Purdy has 22% of the total rookie cards that Pickett does, meaning at some level his overall rookie card supply is closer to the lower prints runs of Mahomes and Allen.
In the modern era of sports card production, players with little draft hype will simply have significantly lower print runs than early round picks. This means that those late round picks who pan out in the long term could have more demand than expected with a very limited supply.
Players with plenty of draft hype like Burrow, Herbert, Hurts, and Tagovailoa benefit from having higher overall print runs and a larger number of total products. So even if the hobby collectively believes players like Burrow or Hurts are better than Purdy, their overall print runs make it more difficult to sustain higher prices.
The incredible start Purdy has had to his career has helped drive his prices above stars like Hurts and Herbert, but it might be his lower print runs that actually keep him above the 2020 class even if his play declines.
