Collectibles On SI

How Much Could Paul Skenes' MLB Debut Patch Card Be Worth?

One of the most sought-after cards this year has several offers on the table. How much could it be worth?

Horacio Ruiz

Aug 16, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) makes his way to the field to warm up before pitching against the Seattle Mariners at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Aug 16, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) makes his way to the field to warm up before pitching against the Seattle Mariners at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Paul Skenes’ MLB Debut Patch rookie card, the card everyone is anticipating getting pulled, could pop out any day. Breakers are ripping thousands of packs daily, and collectors (flippers?) are buying droves of boxes, hoping to pull the big one.

But how much is the card potentially worth?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have offered two season tickets behind home plate for 30 years. How much is that in dollars? To sit directly behind home plate, one would be sitting in Section 17 at PNC Park. Based on Ticketmaster prices, a seat in Section 17, Row G, usually costs $351. Two seats would make that $702 per game.

Over 30 years, assuming prices stay the same, that’s a total of $1.7 million. However, Pirates season ticket holders get a 50% discount, so one could argue that it’s really an $850,000 value spread out over 30 years before inflation and team-based price adjustments.

One could also look at other highly sought-after rookie cards and what they went for. The biggest pull from last year’s MLB Debut cards was Anthony Volpe, whose card was recently sold to Dave and Adam’s for $150,000 as part of an eight-month long bounty.

Some people might forget how big of a prospect Volpe was when he earned a starting spot for the Yankees in 2023. However, with Skenes’ debut and his electric 2024 season, it is clear that $150,000 is merely a very low floor for the value of his card.

One could also look at one of the most anticipated rookies from another sport - Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama’s 2022 Bowman U Superfractor in his French team’s uniform, which he signed and inscribed, sold for $67,000 on Goldin Auctions. The Superfractor is considered a pre-NBA card.

At the time, Ken Goldin, CEO of Goldin Auctions, said that if it had been an NBA card with a Spurs logo, it could have sold for 5 to 15 times more than $67,000. With that estimate, such a hypothetical card would have sold for $335,000 to about $1 million.

But basketball is different from baseball. Basketball draws on a larger global audience. While baseball has grown internationally, especially in Asia, it is nowhere near as popular as basketball in Europe, China, or Australia.

So, the global market isn’t as big for a baseball card as it is for basketball, which means the Skenes Debut Patch Card most likely won’t approach $1 million. But crazier things have happened.

It’s an interesting place for a pitcher to be. Of the 20 best-selling baseball jerseys last season, only one was of a pitcher, Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw had the 19th-most popular jersey in 2024, according to MLBShop.com. This year's highest sale price for one of his cards was $16,000.

But the MLB Debut Patch cards are different. They have become the equivalent of the NBA’s Logoman in terms of desirability. Except Debut Patch cards can only be made once - ever - for each player because the patch is only worn on the player’s very first game.

It’s a novel concept that has elevated the Patch cards above a baseball player’s Superfractor. The Debut Patch cards have also beautifully married a card with game-used memorabilia without any ambiguity of where the patch is from and when and where it was worn.

So what could Skenes’ Debut Patch be worth? We can’t say for sure, but consider the following:

  1. Set a floor price of about $200,000 based on the Volpe sale.  
  2. The Pirates are offering to comp about $850,000 of season tickets over 30 years. The face value for the tickets is about $1.7 million (taking away the 50% discount for season tickets).  
  3. A shaky comparison to a one-of-one Wembanyama Superfractor rookie between $335,000 and $1 million. Maybe somewhere in the middle?

Of course, whoever pulls it may decide to keep it. And when it’s time to change hands, then who knows how much it will be worth?

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Horacio Ruiz
HORACIO RUIZ

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