Analyzing the Hobby Hype and Aftermath of Ohtani, Soto Deals

Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto saw their card markets surge during the news cycle. But what's happened in the aftermath?

Sometimes for collectors, the most intriguing events take place in the offseason away from the field of play. Trades, contract signings and extensions can often add to the interest or hype associated with individual players and their new teams. We consistently rumors drive interest and a spike in card value when they land with their new team.

Case in point, two massive superstar baseball players landed with new teams this offseason, and we’ve seen a ripple effect across their sports card market as a result.

Ohtani wasn’t the only big winner

Shohei Ohtani’s decision on where he would play in 2024 will likely stand as the most followed and reported event of baseball’s offseason. Despite a UCL injury that ended his season early — he won’t pitch at all in 2024 either — Ohtani was the top free agent for a variety of contenders hoping to add one of the best players in recent memory. News broke on Dec 9 that the 29-year-old would be staying in Los Angeles, but in a new uniform, as Ohtani signed a massive 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers.

Several of Shohei Ohtani's key rookies got price bumps leading up to his record deal / Market Movers

While Ohtani certainly cemented generational wealth for his family for years to come, he wasn’t the only beneficiary of the signing, as his sports card market saw substantial spikes too. According to Market Movers’ Shohei Ohtani Index, the market for his key cards jumped 5% overall in the two weeks leading up to his signing. Key rookies like his 2018 Topps Update Base PSA 10, 2018 Topps Chrome Base (Pitching) PSA 10, and his 2018 Bowman Base PSA 10 all saw strong bumps in pricing paired with extremely high sales volume.

There’s no denying that the hype leading up to Ohtani’s deal created an increase in demand for his cards that fueled growth. But what happens when the excitement passes? Zooming out, it’s clear that the major bumps in price growth occurred almost entirely over a two-day period on Dec 8 and Dec 9. In fact, Ohtani’s market remained mostly flat over the week following his new deal. Several of those key 2018 rookies also saw their price growth start to slow over that same period and his 2018 Bowman Base PSA 10 even declined 3%.

Ohtani's market leveled off after a massive surge after his new deal / Market Movers

Juan Soto: Yankees land another slugger

Prior to Ohtani signing with the Dodgers, 25-year-old outfielder Juan Soto was leading the way as the top offseason newsmaker after getting traded to the New York Yankees on December 7.

Over the 14 days leading up to the trade, Soto’s overall market climbed a blistering 13% and showcased a similar trend line to Ohtani. His key rookies saw substantial price growth over that two-week stretch too, with cards like his 2018 Topps Update Base Raw jumping 511% and his 2018 Topps Chrome Update Base PSA 10 up 58%.

Like Ohtani, Soto's market saw a major surge during the news cycle.  / Market Movers

After the trade, Soto’s market saw a similar cooldown to Ohtani’s while falling 3% over the next seven days. Those two previously mentioned rookies saw their price growth slow to 17% and 9%, respectively, over that same period.

While the day of the signing or trade is likely the most exciting for sports fans, the actual hype leading into the event can fuel card pricing changes more than the news itself. And while there can also often be some small growth in the days following the news, collectors should expect a course correction relatively quickly.