How often does a "Promising Prospect" turn into an MVP Contender?

Sophia Smith was deemed a “promising prospect” before ever becoming a professional soccer player.

Aug 30, 2024; Portland, Oregon, USA; Portland Thorns FC forward Sophia Smith (9) controls the ball during the second half at Providence Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Sophia Smith took over the USWYNT system, competing in both the 2016 FIFA U-17 World Cup, and the 2018 FIFA U-20 World Cup. Being named the Young Female Player of the Year in 2017, it was known early on that Smith had all the tools to be successful at the next level. The senior USWNT took notice of this talent, calling Smith up to her first camp in 2017, at just age 16. 

Fast forward a couple years later, the dominance of Smith continues; this time collegiately. Smith helped lead Stanford University to a national championship in 2019, scoring a hat trick in the semi-final against Pac-12 rival and women’s soccer powerhouse, UCLA. 

The story of Sophia Smith had only just begun, as her pro career was now underway. After getting drafted No.1 Overall in the 2020 NWSL Draft by the Portland Thorns, Parkside deemed her as a “Promising Prospect” in their 2020 NWSL release. 

Over the past two years, this “promising prospect” card has risen to the top, as Smith has not only become one of the faces of the NWSL, but also one of the USWNT. A few days ago, Smith’s 2020 Parkside NWSL Promising Prospects PSA 10 (that only has a population of 10) sold for an all-time high of $2,640 (Via Fanatics Weekly (Auction)). This marks an 30% ($610) increase, of this card's last sale, two years ago, for $2,030, on May 19 2022.

Jul 13, 2024; Harrison, New Jersey, USA; United States forward Sophia Smith (11) celebrates her goal during the second half against Mexico at Red Bull Arena. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

A decorated NWSL career Smith has had at just 24 years old, already having a "Golden Boot", an MVP, and an NWSL Championship with the Portland Thorns in 2022. Previous to the 2024 season, the Thorns signed Smith to a two-year extension, that made her the highest paid player in the league. While no specific numbers have been given, it illustrates that the Thorns wanted to lock down this generational talent.

As Smith continues her chase of her second Golden Boot award (Most goals scored during the regular season) of her career (Winning in 2023), the Thorns will look to capitalize on Smith’s magic. Sitting in sixth in the NWSL standings, the Thorns will need to shake their four game losing streak, to secure a playoff spot, as only the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit have done so thus far.