Sports Card Winners and Losers From NFL Free Agency
While teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used the 2024 NFL free agency period to retain top players, teams like the Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns and the Philadelphia Eagles have used it to add playmaking to a strong core.
Beyond the field, some of this offseason’s biggest moves have had a major impact in the sports card hobby too with collectors rapidly reacting.
Here’s a look at some of the biggest hobby winners and losers from free agency so far:
Winner: Baker Mayfield
At this point, Mayfield is what he is — an above average starting QB but probably not much else. He likely isn’t winning Tampa Bay a Super Bowl and he’s not going to win an MVP, but he got paid this offseason and his sports card market has adjusted accordingly.
The Buccaneers signed Mayfield to a 3-year, $100 million deal after he led the team to the NFC South title and a playoff win last season, and the former No. 1 overall pick continues to stick around as an occasional buy for hobbyists.
Mayfield’s graded cards are up 9% collectively over the last seven days, according to Market Movers, and while the positive price growth probably doesn’t last long, it has still resulted in solid returns for several of his key rookies.
Looking at his most popular cards, Mayfield’s 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 has jumped 39% over the last week to about $50 while his 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 has risen 27% to about $57.
While Mayfield will occasionally see some hobby traction, he’s far from a favorite, so expect his key cards to regress as free agency wraps up.
Loser: Justin Herbert
Things have not gone well for Herbert collectors so far this offseason. While the Chargers were able to retain defensive stars Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack after restructuring their contracts, the team cut wide receiver Mike Williams and traded Keenan Allen to the Chicago Bears for a 4th-round pick — all after running back Austin Ekeler bolted for the Commanders in free agency.
Herbert is now left with a fraction of the offensive talent he had last year and it’s hard to see how his market recovers in the immediate future. The Chargers could certainly add some additional talent through the NFL Draft, but the reality is that collectors have become more bearish on Herbert after another disappointing year ended without a playoff win.
According to Market Movers, Herbert’s graded cards are down 2% collectively over the last seven days across over 300 sales. Despite strong sales volume, several of Herbert’s key rookies have slipped in price over the last week.
Herbert’s 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 is down 12% over the last seven days and has now dropped just below $100. His 2020 Donruss Base PSA 10 is also down 9% and is trending around $70.
Winner: Saquon Barkley
Star running backs still don’t typically get much appreciation in the sports card hobby, but Barkley is among the few that do on occasion. After years with the New York Giants, the former Penn State star decided to return to Pennsylvania while signing with the Eagles.
Health remains a major issue for Barkley, but he’s as dynamic as they come when he plays and should provide additional firepower to an already talented Eagles offense. Don’t expect Barkley to develop a robust hobby following overnight, but it’s fair to believe his cards could retain some positive price growth now that he’s on a Super Bowl contender.
Barkley’s graded cards tracked by Market Movers are up 4% collectively across 100 sales over the last seven days. Looking at key rookies, Barkley’s 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 is up 20% over that same period while his 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 is up 10%.
Despite the overall price growth, Barkley’s most popular graded rookie over the last week — his 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 — has fallen 5% across 28 sales.
Loser: Josh Allen
Much like Herbert, Allen remains one of the hobby’s most popular players, but collectors and fans alike are starting to wonder about his future after another disappointing season. Allen has been great at piling up stats and highlight plays, but the lack of postseason success is becoming a major factor.
The Bills also haven’t done much during free agency to make collectors extremely bullish either — the additions of Curtis Samual and Mack Hollins on offense won’t exactly shift the narrative much.
Allen’s graded cards tracked by Market Movers are down 3% collectively over the last seven days across over 140 sales and his most popular rookies are among the biggest decliners.
His 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 is down 12% over the last week to around $150 while his 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 is down 10% and his 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 is down 5%.
Collectors likely view Allen more positively than Herbert at this point, but Allen’s long-term hobby health is tied to postseason success and hobbyists will want to see that sooner rather than later.
Winner: Russell Wilson
Wilson is by no means a hobby favorite, but signing with a franchise as popular as the Pittsburgh Steelers could help maintain his recent positive price growth.
After a disastrous first season in Denver, Wilson rebounded last year with 26 passing TDs to just eight interceptions. The Broncos managed just a 7-8 record in his 15 starts, but Wilson showed enough in 2023 to make many believe he might not be completely done as a quality starter.
Wilson’s graded cards tracked by Market Movers are up 3% collectively over the last seven days across more than 100 sales and his key rookies have been major drivers.
Powered by strong sales volume, Wilson’s 2012 Topps Base PSA 10 ($40) is up 3% over the last week while his 2012 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 ($84) is up 8% and his 2012 Prizm Base PSA 10 ($199) is up 40%.
Loser: Justin Jefferson
Kirk Cousins signing with the Atlanta Falcons might be the biggest move of the offseason, but without extremely robust markets for Cousins, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Drake London, the player impacted most by the move could be Jefferson.
The quarterback situation in Minnesota is currently unclear, but the Vikings made moves Friday that appear to be in an effort to move up in the draft — possibly to secure the next starting QB.
No matter what happens with the draft, Jefferson appears to be in Minnesota indefinitely, and that means his market might suffer in the short-term.
According to Market Movers, Jefferson’s graded cards are down 2% collectively over the last seven days across more than 150 sales.
For collectors looking for something positive, despite the overall negative trend, several of Jefferson’s key cards have managed to stay in the green over the last week.
His 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 and 2020 Select Concourse PSA 10 have both been trending up over that same period, meaning his overall market decline might be largely caused by a collection of less popular cards adding up.
