The Impact of NFL Coaching Changes On Sports Card Pricing
It’s hard to deny that the NFL has been one of the greatest soap operas of the past two or three decades.
There’s constant rule changes and the expansion of the game in Europe. There’s late round picks that have turned into superstars like Tom Brady and Brock Purdy. There’s even storylines that feature siblings, like JJ Watt and TJ Watt, Nick Bosa and Joey Bosa, and Travis Kelce and Jason Kelce. You also can’t forget about lineages like three-time Super Bowl champion Ed McCaffrey and his son, 49ers superstar Christian McCaffrey.
The NFL has almost an unlimited number of storylines like these to drive interest and interest drives hype. Hype then drives card prices.
One of the most compelling storylines in the NFL is the head coaching carousel every offseason. But do those changes impact sports card prices?
Let’s take a look.
Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots
Hired: Jan. 12
A former first round pick, Mayo played with the Patriots for eight seasons and was promoted after serving as the inside linebackers coach since 2019. New England also hired Alex Van Pelt on Feb. 1 as offensive coordinator. Van Pelt served as the Cleveland Browns OC for the past four seasons and will be tasked with revamping New England’s offense.
New England has also yet to hire a new general manager, and the current expectation is that the hire will be an external one.
The Patriots have the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and reportedly $79.3 million of cap space to work with.
Upon the news that Mayo was hired, the only pricing movement came from Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekial Elliot.
Rhamondre Stevenson’s 2021 Prizm Base Raw rose from $1 to $2.33 after the announcement. Ezekiel Elliott’s 2016 Optic Base Raw increased from $2 to $3.99 after the announcement.
Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders
Hired: Jan. 19
This was not big news, since Pierce was the interim coach at the end of the season, taking over for Josh McDaniels, who was fired on October 31.
The only real significant hobby name on the Raiders is running back Josh Jacobs, who is a free agent this offseason. Most of his liquid cards are down over the last 30 days by between 40% and 50%.
Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans
Hired: Jan. 22
This is where card prices start to get interesting. Callahan, who just completed his 14th season in the NFL, had served as Cincinnati’s offensive coordinator since 2019. He has 18 years of coaching experience and was an important part of quarterback Joe Burrow's development. He was also part of Denver’s Super Bowl championship in 2015.
Most importantly, Callahan has worked in a variety of dynamic offenses with top-tier quarterbacks. Within hours of the announcement, Titans QB Will Levis’ 2023 Prizm Silver Raw saw a jump from $38 to $59 and has stayed above $45 since.
Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers
Hired: Jan. 24
This has been the highest profile hire of the NFL offseason thus far. Many hobbyists believed a new coach in LA would positively impact Justin Herbert’s card value in the long term, but it has already appeared to boost it in the short term as well.
Herbert’s 2020 Prizm Base #325 PSA 10 was selling for $76 before the hire and popped to $117 immediately after the hire.
Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons
Hired: Jan. 25
Morris comes over from the Los Angeles Rams as defensive coordinator after stops in Washington and Atlanta as an assistant on both sides of the ball. He also had a stint as Tampa’s head coach from 2009 to 2011.
There have been no major changes to key players cards like Drake London, Bijan Robinson or Kyle Pitts. The Falcons have the eighth overall pick and the assumption is that improving the QB position is a priority this offseason.
Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers
Hired: Jan. 25
The Panthers reportedly believe Canales is the right man to fix quarterback Bryce Young, who had a historically bad rookie season as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Canales “fixed” 2018 No. 1 overall pick (and former Panthers QB) Baker Mayfield this past season and Geno Smith in 2022 with the Seattle Seahawks. Smith was named NFL Comeback Player of the Year in 2022 under Canales as QB coach.
While Young’s card prices haven’t seen a spike yet, they should if his play does improve in 2024 under Canales.
Young’s 2023 Prizm #311 Base Raw is down 79% already since the release of 2023 Prizm Football. It opened at $20 and is down to $4.
The Commanders also hired former Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as head coach on Feb. 1 and the Seahawks hired former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald as head coach on Jan. 31.
The takeaway so far is that QB-friendly coaches being paired with a young, talented QB can certainly have an impact on card pricing.
There appears to be little or zero impact on cards when defensive-minded coaches take over teams with plenty of questions on offense.
