Big Ten Men’s Basketball Preview: Can a Deep Conference Produce a Title Contender?

Purdue looks poised to be the top team again, and Rutgers freshmen will be must-watch this season.

Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith is projected to be the Big Ten Player of the Year. / Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

As part of its 2024–25 men’s basketball preseason coverage, Sports Illustrated is rolling out previews for the five high-major conferences, plus the top mid-majors nationally. Previously: ACC and Big East. Next up is the Big Ten.

The Big Ten did send a team to the Final Four for the first time since the pandemic hit, but its national title drought stretched closer to a quarter-decade as Purdue came up short against UConn. So we ask again: Is this the season for a breakthrough? On paper, the league’s strength is more its depth of quality teams (all 18 could conceivably be top-75 teams) than its top-tier title contenders, but March is unpredictable. Here’s a top-to-bottom look at the conference and which teams could rise above the rest. 

SI’s Picks For … 

Player of the Year: Braden Smith, Purdue

Breakout Player: Trey Kaufman-Renn, Purdue

Newcomer of the Year: Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Dark Horse Team: Iowa Hawkeyes

All-Conference First Team 

• Braden Smith, Purdue
• Bruce Thornton, Ohio State
• Payton Sandfort, Iowa
• Ace Bailey, Rutgers
• Oumar Ballo, Indiana

1. Purdue Boilermakers

Even with Zach Edey off to the NBA, Purdue is the safe choice to win the conference yet again. The Boilermakers have the league’s best coach in Matt Painter and its best point guard in Braden Smith, a combination that’s as good a place to start as any if building a team from scratch. Smith’s game may be more difficult without Edey attracting attention down low, but the Boilermakers can surround him with tons of shooting and a pair of dynamic wing athletes in Camden Heide and Myles Colvin. Plus, Trey Kaufman-Renn seems primed for a breakout stepping out of Edey’s shadow at center. 

2. Illinois Fighting Illini

Few rosters are more interesting nationally than the one built by Brad Underwood this offseason. He added a pair of potential first-round picks in Lithuanian PG Kasparas Jakucionis and Canadian wing Will Riley, though both are just 18 years old. In the portal, the Illini stocked up on positional size and shooting, most notably landing Evansville transfer forward Ben Humrichous. The center spot is a concern with freshmen Morez Johnson Jr. and Tomislav Ivisic expected to step into major roles, and there’s a ton of reliance overall here on guys who’ve never played college basketball. But if everything clicks, watch out … and Underwood has proven he’s good at finding the right buttons to press to maximize his personnel. 

3. Indiana Hoosiers

With the amount the Hoosiers spent to rebuild this roster in the offseason, there are no excuses if Mike Woodson can’t win big with this group. Keeping Mackenzie Mgbako and Malik Reneau after rumors of a mass exodus was huge, but the story of the offseason was really the Hoosiers’ portal additions, namely Arizona transfer big Oumar Ballo and Washington State transfer PG Myles Rice. With that duo, IU now has a dynamic ball-screen creator and a dominant interior presence, plus plenty of talent on the wings. But Woodson has a lot to prove after last season’s debacle, and how he modernizes his offensive philosophy will dictate whether this season is a success. 

4. Oregon Ducks

The highest-rated of the four Big Ten newcomers, the Ducks have the pieces for a special first year in the conference. If you’re looking for a name who could blossom from starter to superstar this season, look no further than Jackson Shelstad, the in-state product who averaged nearly 13 points per game as a freshman. Fellow sophomore Kwame "KJ" Evans Jr. also has an immense ceiling, while veteran portal adds like TJ Bamba, Brandon Angel and Ra’Heim Moss should help bring those talented youngsters along. 

5. UCLA Bruins

Mick Cronin reloaded this UCLA roster after a disastrous 2023–24 season. After going the international route a year ago, Cronin this time went heavy on the transfer portal, significantly bolstering this team’s experience level and depth. Circle South Dakota State transfer William Kyle III up front, as well as former USC wing Kobe Johnson and PFs Eric Dailey Jr. (Oklahoma State) and Tyler Bilodeau (Oregon State). That quartet of newcomers combined with backcourt returners Dylan Andrews and Sebastian Mack give this Bruins team a chance for a major bounce back. 

6. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Rutgers is one of the most fascinating teams in the country, featuring two elite freshmen in Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper teaming up in a once-in-a-generation collection of talent for the Scarlet Knights. Can a pair of 18-year-olds lead a team to the promised land when their opponents are in some cases four and five years older than them? It will take rapid maturation from that star duo, as well as key contributions from veteran role players like Jeremiah Williams, PJ Hayes IV and Zach Martini.

7. Ohio State Buckeyes 

Jake Diebler had a positive first offseason as head coach of the Buckeyes, adding a pair of former elite recruits up front in Sean Stewart (Duke) and Aaron Bradshaw (Kentucky) as well as experience in the backcourt (South Carolina transfer Meechie Johnson Jr., San Diego State transfer Micah Parrish). That, combined with retaining Bruce Thornton, gives this group upward mobility in this crowded conference. Bradshaw feels like the swing piece, a toolsy 7-footer who had an uneven first season at Kentucky. If he can be more consistent as a shooter and improve on the defensive end, he might be a first-round pick by this time next year. 

8. Michigan State Spartans

After last season’s 15-loss campaign, the Spartans have now lost 13 or more games in four consecutive seasons. Part of that can be attributed to the grueling nonconference schedules Tom Izzo annually signs up for, but it’s certainly an indicator the Spartan program has fallen some from the elite status it maintained for most of the prior two decades under Izzo. The pieces that can change are part of a talented sophomore class, one that features PG of the future Jeremy Fears Jr., uber-athletic wing Coen Carr and skilled big Xavier Booker. Those three pieces showing progress may be even more important than the win-loss column for the Spartans in 2024–25. 

9. Iowa Hawkeyes

Iowa missed the tournament for the first time since 2018 a year ago, but has the pieces to bounce back and start a new streak in ’24–25. Shooter Payton Sandfort’s return after testing the NBA draft waters was huge, and sophomore big man Owen Freeman has the potential to be one of the league’s top frontcourt players. The Hawkeyes also got more athletic with transfer forward Seydou Traore, and watch out for a breakout year from junior wing Josh Dix, who scored 13 or more points in six of Iowa’s final nine games a year ago. 

10. Michigan Wolverines

The Wolverines winning the Dusty May sweepstakes this offseason was a huge coup for the program, and May built a competitive roster essentially from scratch in the spring. Much of this year rides on a fascinating two-big experiment, pairing uber-skilled Yale transfer Danny Wolf with FAU transfer 7-footer Vlad Goldin. There are questions from a spacing and defensive standpoint, though Wolf’s mobility and passing ability allow the Wolverines to do some creative things with him. In the backcourt, Ohio State transfer Roddy Gayle Jr. needs to take the next step into being a consistent shooter to carry this guard unit. 

11. Maryland Terrapins

Maryland was putrid offensively in 2023–24, setting up an important third year for the Kevin Willard era in College Park. The roster has been upgraded though, and the NCAA tournament should be the bare minimum for what a successful season looks like. Five-star freshman big Derik Queen is one of the most skilled high school bigs I can remember, and pairing him with Julian Reese could cause plenty of matchup problems. Belmont transfer Ja’Kobi Gillespie is a stud at point guard, but has big shoes to fill replacing Jahmir Young, who went undrafted this spring but was a Denver Nuggets training camp invitee. 

12. USC Trojans

Eric Musselman has long been known for his work in the transfer portal, but the former Arkansas head coach had to put things in overdrive this spring, inheriting a complete rebuild at USC. In all, 11 transfers matriculated for the Trojans, headlined by former Xavier guard Desmond Claude (16.6 ppg in 2023–24) and mid-major transfers like Saint Thomas and Chibuzo Agbo. This roster has plenty of interchangeable parts with size and versatility, but lacks a true point guard and could have defensive issues at center if UMass transfer Josh Cohen wins the job. 

13. Northwestern Wildcats

Boo Buie’s transformational tenure in Evanston is over, but there’s optimism the Cats could compete for a third straight NCAA tournament berth anyway. Expect Brooks Barnhizer to step into a central role offensively, while returners Ty Berry, Nick Martinelli and Matthew Nicholson are also proven pieces. How Fairfield transfer Jalen Leach handles point guard responsibilities is a huge question that could dictate Chris Collins’s team’s ceiling. 

14. Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State was quietly competitive in Mike Rhoades’s first season in Happy Valley, going 9–11 in Big Ten play after a shaky start to the season. Four starters from the team’s end-of-season surge are back, including floor general Ace Baldwin Jr. and athletic slasher Nick Kern Jr., and that continuity should pay dividends. Two transfer additions worth circling: Freddie Dilione V, a former elite recruit who was blocked for minutes last season at Tennessee but possesses NBA upside, and Yanic Konan Niederhauser, a high-end rim protector out of Northern Illinois. 

15. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Losing Rienk Mast for the year after offseason knee surgery is a massive blow after he catalyzed the Cornhuskers’ first trip to the NCAA tournament in a decade last season. All hope isn’t lost though: Fred Hoiberg’s staff has loaded up on shooting, with newcomers like Connor Essegian, Rollie Worster and Gavin Griffiths teaming up with Brice Williams for quite the sharp-shooting group. Don’t sleep on UCLA transfer Berke Buyuktuncel, a bounce-back candidate who arrived in Westwood a year ago with huge acclaim.

16. Washington Huskies

Danny Sprinkle did yeoman’s work at Utah State a year ago and is one of the brightest young coaches in the sport, so it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he overachieves yet again. But outside of $2 million man Great Osobor, there are plenty of question marks with this group. Butler transfer DJ Davis gives this backcourt some scoring pop, but point guard play is a significant question mark. Osobor was one of the most impactful frontcourt players in the country last season at Utah State, but how his game scales up against bigger, more physical Big Ten foes may dictate whether this group goes dancing.

17. Wisconsin Badgers

History suggests Wisconsin will outperform this admittedly pessimistic outlook, but talent-wise this roster on paper belongs near the bottom of the Big Ten. The biggest reason for excitement is some of the Badgers’ young talent, namely guards John Blackwell and Daniel Freitag as well as big Nolan Winter. That trio combined with vets Steven Crowl and Max Klesmit and a trio of floor-raising portal additions give the Badgers a fighting chance at an NCAA tournament bid despite losing Chucky Hepburn and AJ Storr to the portal. 

18. Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Gophs made tangible strides a year ago in a make-or-break season for Ben Johnson, but got ravaged by portal and draft departures this spring. Keeping Dawson Garcia was a big win though, as was the addition of Charlotte transfer Lu’Cye Patterson to replace Elijah Hawkins at point guard. This is an old team, with 10 of 13 scholarship players in at least their fourth college season, and they’ll need to lean on that experience to scrap out Big Ten wins with less talent than much of the league.